Fantasy Baseball 2016 > Rankings > Outfielders > Rankings Archive 2015

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Archive:
Outfielders

Some of you out there didn't trust that Michael Brantley was the best fantasy outfielder going into the 2015 draft, but he had another great season, less the 25 games he missed. Everything else was right on pace for another huge season. In terms o outfielders, there's just too much data to go through, here, so draft at will. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and, yes, Michael Brantley... and then there's Giancarlo Stanton who had a great comeback year (until he got injured again), Adam Jones, Yoenis Cespedes... as we said, the list goes on and on. This year's list will get a pretty good shuffle, but among the top outfielders, you know who to draft in 2016... or do you?

Fantasy Outfielder Rankings: Standard 5x5

RANK	Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1	Brantley, M	156	611	94	20	97	23	.327
2	McCutchen, A	146	548	89	25	83	18	.314
3	Trout, M	157	602	115	36	111	16	.287
4	Gomez, C	148	574	95	23	73	34	.284
5	Stanton, G	145	539	89	37	105	13	.288
6	Blackmon, C	154	593	82	19	72	28	.288
7	Bautista, J	155	553	101	35	103	6	.286
8	Dickerson, C	131	436	74	24	76	8	.312
9	Pence, H	162	650	106	20	74	13	.277
10	Kemp, M	150	541	77	25	89	8	.287
11	Puig, Y	148	558	92	16	69	11	.296
12	Jones, A	159	644	88	29	96	7	.281
13	Werth, J	147	534	85	16	82	9	.292
14	Marte, S	135	495	73	13	56	30	.291
15	Ellsbury, J	149	575	71	16	70	39	.271
16	Upton, J	154	566	77	29	102	8	.270
17	Martinez, J	123	441	57	23	76	6	.315
18	Yelich, C	144	582	94	9	54	21	.284
19	Cabrera, M	139	568	81	16	73	6	.301
20	Cruz, N	159	613	87	40	108	4	.271
21	Gordon, A	156	563	87	19	74	12	.266
22	Cespedes, Y	152	600	89	22	100	7	.260
23	Gardner, B	148	555	87	17	58	21	.256
24	Stubbs, D	132	388	67	15	43	20	.289
25	Heyward, J	149	573	74	11	58	20	.271
26	Braun, R	135	530	68	19	81	11	.266
26	Span, D	147	610	94	5	37	31	.302
28	Holliday, M	156	574	83	20	90	4	.272
29	Hunter, T	142	549	71	17	83	4	.286
30	Davis, R	134	461	64	8	51	36	.282
31	Crawford, C	105	343	56	8	46	23	.300
32	Calhoun, K	127	493	90	17	58	5	.272
33	Cain, L	133	471	55	5	53	28	.301
34	Ozuna, M	153	565	72	23	85	3	.269
35	Pearce, S	102	338	51	21	49	5	.293
36	Byrd, M	154	591	71	25	85	3	.264
37	Martin, L	155	533	68	7	40	31	.274
38	Markakis, N	155	642	81	14	50	4	.276
39	Hamilton, B	152	563	72	6	48	56	.250
40	Revere, B	151	601	71	2	28	49	.306
41	Granderson, C	155	564	73	20	66	8	.227
42	Davis, K	144	501	70	22	69	4	.244
42	Ackley, D	143	502	64	14	65	8	.245
44	Crisp, C	126	463	68	9	47	19	.246
45	Coghlan, C	125	385	50	9	41	7	.283
46	Fowler, D	116	434	61	8	35	11	.276
47	Bruce, J	137	493	71	18	66	12	.217
47	Jackson, A	154	597	71	4	47	20	.256
49	Parra, G	150	529	64	9	40	9	.261
50	De Aza, A	142	477	56	8	41	17	.252

Fantasy Outfielder 5x5 Rankings:
Projected to 600 At Bats

RANK	Player	R 600	HR 600	RBI 600	SB 600	AVG
1	Castillo, R	100.0	33.3	100.0	50.0	.333
2	Trout, M	114.6	35.9	110.6	15.9	.287
3	Stanton, G	99.1	41.2	116.9	14.5	.288
4	McCutchen, A	97.4	27.4	90.9	19.7	.314
5	Dickerson, C	101.8	33.0	104.6	11.0	.312
6	Morgan, N	117.1	14.6	87.8	43.9	.341
7	Brantley, M	92.3	19.6	95.3	22.6	.327
8	Cuddyer, M	101.1	31.6	97.9	9.5	.332
9	Gomez, C	99.3	24.0	76.3	35.5	.284
10	Bautista, J	109.6	38.0	111.8	6.5	.286
11	Stubbs, D	103.6	23.2	66.5	30.9	.289
12	Crawford, C	98.0	14.0	80.5	40.2	.300
13	Van Slyke, S	90.6	31.1	82.1	11.3	.297
14	Pearce, S	90.5	37.3	87.0	8.9	.293
15	Martinez, J	77.6	31.3	103.4	8.2	.315
16	Kemp, M	85.4	27.7	98.7	8.9	.287
17	Blackmon, C	83.0	19.2	72.8	28.3	.288
18	Werth, J	95.5	18.0	92.1	10.1	.292
19	Marte, S	88.5	15.8	67.9	36.4	.291
20	Saunders, M	98.7	20.8	88.3	10.4	.273
21	Puig, Y	98.9	17.2	74.2	11.8	.296
22	Soler, J	74.2	33.7	134.8	6.7	.292
23	Upton, J	81.6	30.7	108.1	8.5	.270
24	Cruz, N	85.2	39.2	105.7	3.9	.271
25	Pollock, A	92.8	15.8	54.3	31.7	.302
26	Jones, A	82.0	27.0	89.4	6.5	.281
27	Gordon, A	92.7	20.2	78.9	12.8	.266
28	Springer, G	91.5	40.7	103.7	10.2	.231
29	Nieuwenhuis, K	85.7	16.1	85.7	21.4	.259
30	Pence, H	97.8	18.5	68.3	12.0	.277
31	Cespedes, Y	89.0	22.0	100.0	7.0	.260
32	Braun, R	77.0	21.5	91.7	12.5	.266
33	Smolinski, J	83.7	20.9	83.7	0.0	.349
34	Calhoun, K	109.5	20.7	70.6	6.1	.272
35	Holliday, M	86.8	20.9	94.1	4.2	.272
36	Polanco, G	108.3	15.2	71.5	30.3	.235
37	Gardner, B	94.1	18.4	62.7	22.7	.256
38	Davis, R	83.3	10.4	66.4	46.9	.282
39	Ellsbury, J	74.1	16.7	73.0	40.7	.271
40	Cabrera, M	85.6	16.9	77.1	6.3	.301
41	Hunter, T	77.6	18.6	90.7	4.4	.286
42	Yelich, C	96.9	9.3	55.7	21.6	.284
43	Reddick, J	87.6	19.8	89.3	1.7	.264
44	Ozuna, M	76.5	24.4	90.3	3.2	.269
45	Gonzalez, C	80.8	25.4	87.7	6.9	.238
46	Lough, D	106.9	13.8	55.2	27.6	.247
47	Bruce, J	86.4	21.9	80.3	14.6	.217
48	Davis, K	83.8	26.3	82.6	4.8	.244
49	Garcia, A	66.3	24.4	101.2	14.0	.244
50	Ruggiano, J	77.7	16.1	75.0	5.4	.281

Before we get into our fantasy outfielder analysis, we need to bring you up to speed on how we analyzed this year's crop of outfielders, why our criteria is different, and even more importantly how it's going to ultimately help you all season long with scouring the waiver wires to replace your injured or otherwise-sucky players. We've taken our fantasy analysis a step further than the other sites with the outfielders in 2015. We have the:

Top 50 outfielders in the standard 5x5 categories.
Top 50 outfielders projected to 600 At Bats.
Top 50 outfielders based on 3x3 stats (Runs, HR, RBI) - the stats you care about the most. Internally, we call this the "Goon Rankings" but the jury is still out as to whether that moniker will stick. Moving on...

Standard 5x5 Fantasy Rankings

This one's a "duh." This is arguably the most-reliable source of fantasy baseball information available: the rankings in the standard 5x5 stats of Runs, HR, RBI, SB and Batting Average. It also lets you know who (mostly) played a full season and who put up the best fantasy numbers during that full season. What it doesn't tell you, however, is who was on pace for a top-notch fantasy performance before being cut down by an injury.

Fantasy Stats Projected out to 600 At Bats

Projecting everyone out to an even playing field (i.e.: 600 at bats) doesn't just let you know who was on pace for what in terms of fantasy performance. More importantly, projected stats let you know what you can expect out of a player when he's in your lineup.

Remember that you may only have a certain outfielder in your lineup for a few days at a time when he has a good matchup, or for a few weeks while he fills in for an injured player on your roster. While you may not benefit from a full season of stats, looking at how players compare to each other when it's apples-to-apples will let you know what you can expect from a guy when he's in your lineup.

For instance, Steve Pearce ranked 35th among all fantasy outfielders in standard, season-long 5x5 stats, however, he accumulated those stats in just 102 games and just 338 At Bats. Projected out to 600 AB, Pearce suddenly jumps up the rankings to #14 among all fantasy outfielders, a clear indication that his stats - while actually in your lineup - will make a much more significant impact than, say, Khris Davis who put up slightly better overall 5x5 stats, but it took him an extra 163 At Bats to get there when compared to Pearce.

Of course, there are cases where the 600 At Bat projections are a bit skewed from a player having a short, yet awesome stint in the majors. For example, the guy who tops our list of 600 AB Projected outfielders is Rusney Castillo. Castillo projected out to 100 runs, 33 HR and 100 RBI while hitting .333 and stealing 50 bases... none of those stats are going to happen. Nonetheless, it does tell you the impact he could have had in your lineup in his brief, 10-game stint with the Red Sox last year. Rusney Castillo may be a starter for the Red Sox this season, but he's 5'8", 186 lbs., so there's no way those projections will come to fruition. He may crack 10-15 HR with a .280 average and 20-25 stolen bases, so he's still a decent sleeper pick, but we just wanted to set the record straight that the 600 At Bat projections can be skewed if there isn't a significant cross-section of data to use (in Castillo's case, there were just 10 games of stats to dissect).

The 600 At Bat projections may turn out to be useful for guys like Scott Van Slyke and JD Martinez. Scott Van Slyke may be forced into long-term duty in the Dodgers' lineup this season, so looking at his 600 at bat projections will help you understand what you can expect out of him if he plays on a more-consistent basis in 2015. Imagining him playing in 150 games last year as a full-time player, you wouldn't be too surprised to see his projected stats come to fruition (91 runs, 31 HR and 82 RBI). We'd expect fewer runs and HR, but not by a lot.

Likewise, JD Martinez solidified himself as an everyday player in Detroit after last season, although it took him a while to get there. Projecting his 123 game, 441 AB season out to 600 ABs, and you'll see numbers you may be able to expect out of JD Martinez in 2015: 78 runs, 31 HR and 103 RBI. He may not hit over .300, but we still see his production being pretty accurate to the 600 at bats projections.

In general, the 600 AB projections are helpful for guys who missed time with injuries as well as guys who got called up mid-season or guys who got nudged into a starting role somewhat unexpectedly. Now that we know AJ Pollock is (supposedly) going to be the leadoff guy for the Arizona Diamondbacks, his 600 at bat projections give us the most-accurate depiction of what to expect from him in a full season at the top of the order. 93 runs, 16 HR, 54 RBI and 32 stolen bases should be pretty accurate to what his 2015 fantasy stats look like. If anything, we see his stolen bases staying around the 20-25 mark, but we wouldn't be surprised to see him crack the 30 stolen base mark.

Another guy to look at in our 600 at bat fantasy projection list is Pirates' outfielder, Gregory Polanco. The Pirates are a solid offensive team, and Gregory Polanco is slated to hit #2 in the lineup after Josh Harrison. Of course, with Andrew McCutchen hitting behind him, Polanco will score plenty of runs so long as he gets on base. Probably not the mathematically-projected 108 runs, but 90-100 is not out of the question. The other numbers seem doable (15 HR, 72 RBI), and we see his batting average rising to the .270 range, too. Also, 30 stolen bases may be a bit much, but 20+ is more than reasonable.

Fantasy Outfielder Rankings: 3x3 Stats (Runs, HR, RBI)

3x3 RANK	Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI
1	Trout, M	157	602	115	36	111
2	Bautista, J	155	553	101	35	103
3	Stanton, G	145	539	89	37	105
4	Cruz, N	159	613	87	40	108
5	Jones, A	159	644	88	29	96
6	McCutchen, A	146	548	89	25	83
7	Brantley, M	156	611	94	20	97
8	Cespedes, Y	152	600	89	22	100
9	Upton, J	154	566	77	29	102
10	Gomez, C	148	574	95	23	73
11	Kemp, M	150	541	77	25	89
12	Pence, H	162	650	106	20	74
13	Holliday, M	156	574	83	20	90
14	Byrd, M	154	591	71	25	85
15	Ozuna, M	153	565	72	23	85
16	Dickerson, C	131	436	74	24	76
17	Gordon, A	156	563	87	19	74
18	Werth, J	147	534	85	16	82
19	Puig, Y	148	558	92	16	69
20	Blackmon, C	154	593	82	19	72
21	Calhoun, K	127	493	90	17	58
22	Granderson, C	155	564	73	20	66
23	Cabrera, M	139	568	81	16	73
24	Hunter, T	142	549	71	17	83
25	Gardner, B	148	555	87	17	58
26	Davis, K	144	501	70	22	69
27	Braun, R	135	530	68	19	81
28	Martinez, J	123	441	57	23	76
29	Bruce, J	137	493	71	18	66
30	Ellsbury, J	149	575	71	16	70
31	Viciedo, D	145	523	65	21	58
32	Yelich, C	144	582	94	9	54
33	Markakis, N	155	642	81	14	50
34	Heyward, J	149	573	74	11	58
35	Marte, S	135	495	73	13	56
36	Ackley, D	143	502	64	14	65
37	Pearce, S	102	338	51	21	49
38	Arcia, O	103	372	46	20	57
39	Morse, M	131	438	48	16	61
40	Stubbs, D	132	388	67	15	43
41	Springer, G	78	295	45	20	51
42	Reddick, J	109	363	53	12	54
43	Crisp, C	126	463	68	9	47
44	Smith, S	136	443	55	12	48
45	Brown, D	144	473	47	10	63
46	Davis, R	134	461	64	8	51
47	Beltran, C	109	403	46	15	49
48	Choo, S	123	455	58	13	40
49	Trumbo, M	88	328	37	14	61
50	Joyce, M	140	418	51	9	52

As long as Giancarlo Stanton is healthy - both physically and mentally - after getting hit in the face with a fastball to end his 2014 season, he will lead the league in HR.

Of course, for those of you who just wanna "goon it up" and go after all the power-hitters (which isn't a bad draft strategy, in all fairness), here's a brand new fantasy ranking system we put together. We call it the "Goon Rankings." It keeps track of the stats that everyone loves to see fill their box scores: Home Runs, RBI and Runs Scored only.

We've all drafted that way at one point or another (if not annually), figuring that, if a guy hits a home run, that means he automatically scores a run and drives in at least 1 RBI. On top of that, it's also a base hit, so it also helps raise your batting average. You figure if you win those categories, stolen bases can go to hell in your fantasy league.

While Mike Trout abandons the speed game, his power numbers continue to improve.

Ironically, the guy at the top of this list led the majors with 49 stolen bases 3 seasons ago. But there's no need to go all in-depth on a guy like Mike Trout. Draft Mike Trout and, if for some reason he decides to stop striking out so much in 2015, expect a boost in his numbers across the board. Just imagine what he would do if he dropped his strikeouts down from 184 to even 134. Give Mike Trout just 50 more balls in play and you're looking 40 HR, 120 runs, 120 RBI and maybe even 20-25 stolen bases. Now those are MVP numbers.

Michael Brantley was statistically the top 5x5 fantasy outfielder in all of baseball last year.

Michael Brantley topped all outfielders in fantasy baseball last year in 5x5 stat production, although it didn't seem like it. Brantley simply filled up the box score with something every single day, it seemed, while on his way to a career year. He hit .327 with 20 HR, 97 RBI and 94 runs scored while also stealing 23 bases. Other than his batting average, none of those stats merits him a top pick individually, but when you see there are no weaknesses in his offensive output, you're going to have to draft him early or pay a pretty penny for him in an auction draft. Expect his average to drop to .300-ish, but the rest of the numbers should still remain.

Baseball fans everywhere are hoping and praying that Giancarlo Stanton has fully recovered from his horrific injury near the end of his 2014 season. Physically, he'll recover just fine. Mentally, however, there's a long list of guys who were on their way to stardom when being hit in the head with a pitch ended everything. Stanton has the full confidence of the Marlins' front office who just dropped off a fully-loaded fleet of Brinks trucks to Stanton's home, so he has that going for him. The reason we say baseball fans everywhere are hoping and praying he's okay is because Giancarlo Stanton is the guy, now, who you wait to watch on SportsCenter just to see if he hit a home run. When Stanton hits a bomb, it's not just a standard-issue, 350-foot shot. It's usually some guided missile headed to Cuba or a towering monstrosity of a home run to dead center field that brings down a moon rock with it. If Stanton is mentally, fully recovered, we see him leading the "Goon Rankings" next year with 50 home runs under his belt after the 2015 season.

George Springer is the real deal, too, folks. Expect him to climb the Goon List next year, no problem. Springer is a 30-35 home run guy, although he's going to strike out about 180 times this season. He should see his batting average crack .240-.250 in 2015, and the Astros actually have a pretty exciting lineup offensively this year. They're going to be reminiscent of the early-90s Detroit Tigers with Rob Deer, Cecil Fielder and Mickey Tettleton who played all-or-nothing ball, crushing what they hit 450 feet and powering suburbs when they swing and miss.

Houston Astros' Outfielder George Springer

Everyone is talking about Matt Kemp and what he has to do to prove he's worth the trade to San Diego. Matt Kemp really just needs to stay healthy and he'll be himself. Justin Upton, on the other hand, is the one in San Diego who is expected to be solid, injury-free, issue-free and ready to go from week one through the playoffs for the Padres. Justin Upton has crazy power, and he should be just fine in San Diego, even if it is a pitchers' park. We fully expect (like everyone else) that Justin Upton will be the unquestionable constant in San Diego. The instant Matt Kemp pulls up limping in the field, and the instant Will Myers goes 0 for 4 with a pair of strikeouts, you just watch the media frenzy that starts predicting their respective doom. Justin Upton, on the other hand, will be just fine from wire to wire and will put himself back up on the Goon List for next season with 25-30 HR, 100 RBI and 85 runs scored.

Other Positions:

C 1B 2B 3B SS OF DH All Hitters SP RP

Mike Trout finally won his first MVP award in 2014. Finally... at the ripe, old age of 23.

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Runs Scored

Rank	Player	Runs
1	Trout, M	115
2	Pence, H	106
3	Bautista, J	101
4	Gomez, C	95
5	Brantley, M	94
5	Yelich, C	94
5	Span, D	94
8	Puig, Y	92
9	Calhoun, K	90
10	Stanton, G	89
10	McCutchen, A	89
10	Cespedes, Y	89
13	Jones, A	88
14	Cruz, N	87
14	Gordon, A	87
14	Gardner, B	87
17	Werth, J	85
18	Holliday, M	83
19	Blackmon, C	82
20	Cabrera, M	81
20	Markakis, N	81
22	Upton, J	77
22	Kemp, M	77
24	Eaton, A	76
25	Dickerson, C	74
25	Heyward, J	74

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Home Runs

Rank	Player	HR
1	Cruz, N	40
2	Stanton, G	37
3	Trout, M	36
4	Bautista, J	35
5	Jones, A	29
5	Upton, J	29
7	McCutchen, A	25
7	Kemp, M	25
7	Byrd, M	25
10	Dickerson, C	24
11	Gomez, C	23
11	Ozuna, M	23
11	Martinez, J	23
14	Cespedes, Y	22
14	Davis, K	22
16	Viciedo, D	21
16	Pearce, S	21
18	Pence, H	20
18	Brantley, M	20
18	Holliday, M	20
18	Granderson, C	20
18	Arcia, O	20
18	Springer, G	20
24	Gordon, A	19
24	Blackmon, C	19
24	Braun, R	19

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Runs Batted In (RBI)

Rank	Player	RBI
1	Trout, M	111
2	Cruz, N	108
3	Stanton, G	105
4	Bautista, J	103
5	Upton, J	102
6	Cespedes, Y	100
7	Brantley, M	97
8	Jones, A	96
9	Holliday, M	90
10	Kemp, M	89
11	Byrd, M	85
11	Ozuna, M	85
13	McCutchen, A	83
13	Hunter, T	83
15	Werth, J	82
16	Braun, R	81
17	Dickerson, C	76
17	Martinez, J	76
19	Pence, H	74
19	Gordon, A	74
21	Gomez, C	73
21	Cabrera, M	73
23	Blackmon, C	72
24	Ellsbury, J	70
25	Davis, K	69
25	Puig, Y	69

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Stolen Bases (SB)

Rank	Player	SB
1	Hamilton, B	56
2	Revere, B	49
3	Ellsbury, J	39
4	Davis, R	36
4	Dyson, J	36
6	Gomez, C	34
7	Martin, L	31
7	Span, D	31
9	Marte, S	30
9	Young Jr., E	30
9	Schafer, J	30
12	Blackmon, C	28
12	Cain, L	28
14	Jones, J	27
15	Brantley, M	23
15	Crawford, C	23
17	Gardner, B	21
17	Yelich, C	21
17	Fuld, S	21
20	Heyward, J	20
20	Jackson, A	20
20	Stubbs, D	20
20	Upton, B	20
20	Gentry, C	20
25	Crisp, C	19
25	Inciarte, E	19

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Batting Average (AVG)

Rank	Player	AVG
1	Brantley, M	.327
2	Martinez, J	.315
3	McCutchen, A	.314
4	Dickerson, C	.312
5	Revere, B	.306
6	Jay, J	.303
7	Span, D	.302
8	Cabrera, M	.301
8	Cain, L	.301
10	Eaton, A	.300
11	Puig, Y	.296
12	Werth, J	.292
13	Marte, S	.291
14	Blackmon, C	.288
14	Stanton, G	.288
16	Trout, M	.287
16	Kemp, M	.287
18	Bautista, J	.286
18	Hunter, T	.286
20	Aoki, N	.285
21	Yelich, C	.284
21	Gomez, C	.284
23	Davis, R	.282
24	Jones, A	.281
24	Lagares, J	.281

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Archive: Outfielders