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Fantasy Baseball 2016 > Rankings > Outfielders > Rankings Archive 2015
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2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Archive:
Outfielders

Justin K. Moreau
Some of you out there didn't trust that Michael Brantley was the best fantasy outfielder going into the 2015 draft, but he had another great season, less the 25 games he missed. Everything else was right on pace for another huge season. In terms o outfielders, there's just too much data to go through, here, so draft at will. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and, yes, Michael Brantley... and then there's Giancarlo Stanton who had a great comeback year (until he got injured again), Adam Jones, Yoenis Cespedes... as we said, the list goes on and on. This year's list will get a pretty good shuffle, but among the top outfielders, you know who to draft in 2016... or do you?

Fantasy Outfielder Rankings: Standard 5x5

RANKPlayerGABRHRRBISBAVG
1Brantley, M15661194209723.327
2McCutchen, A14654889258318.314
3Trout, M1576021153611116.287
4Gomez, C14857495237334.284
5Stanton, G145539893710513.288
6Blackmon, C15459382197228.288
7Bautista, J155553101351036.286
8Dickerson, C1314367424768.312
9Pence, H162650106207413.277
10Kemp, M1505417725898.287
11Puig, Y14855892166911.296
12Jones, A1596448829967.281
13Werth, J1475348516829.292
14Marte, S13549573135630.291
15Ellsbury, J14957571167039.271
16Upton, J15456677291028.270
17Martinez, J1234415723766.315
18Yelich, C1445829495421.284
19Cabrera, M1395688116736.301
20Cruz, N15961387401084.271
21Gordon, A15656387197412.266
22Cespedes, Y15260089221007.260
23Gardner, B14855587175821.256
24Stubbs, D13238867154320.289
25Heyward, J14957374115820.271
26Braun, R13553068198111.266
26Span, D1476109453731.302
28Holliday, M1565748320904.272
29Hunter, T1425497117834.286
30Davis, R1344616485136.282
31Crawford, C1053435684623.300
32Calhoun, K1274939017585.272
33Cain, L1334715555328.301
34Ozuna, M1535657223853.269
35Pearce, S1023385121495.293
36Byrd, M1545917125853.264
37Martin, L1555336874031.274
38Markakis, N1556428114504.276
39Hamilton, B1525637264856.250
40Revere, B1516017122849.306
41Granderson, C1555647320668.227
42Davis, K1445017022694.244
42Ackley, D1435026414658.245
44Crisp, C1264636894719.246
45Coghlan, C125385509417.283
46Fowler, D1164346183511.276
47Bruce, J13749371186612.217
47Jackson, A1545977144720.256
49Parra, G150529649409.261
50De Aza, A1424775684117.252

Fantasy Outfielder 5x5 Rankings:
Projected to 600 At Bats

RANKPlayerR 600HR 600RBI 600SB 600AVG
1Castillo, R100.033.3100.050.0.333
2Trout, M114.635.9110.615.9.287
3Stanton, G99.141.2116.914.5.288
4McCutchen, A97.427.490.919.7.314
5Dickerson, C101.833.0104.611.0.312
6Morgan, N117.114.687.843.9.341
7Brantley, M92.319.695.322.6.327
8Cuddyer, M101.131.697.99.5.332
9Gomez, C99.324.076.335.5.284
10Bautista, J109.638.0111.86.5.286
11Stubbs, D103.623.266.530.9.289
12Crawford, C98.014.080.540.2.300
13Van Slyke, S90.631.182.111.3.297
14Pearce, S90.537.387.08.9.293
15Martinez, J77.631.3103.48.2.315
16Kemp, M85.427.798.78.9.287
17Blackmon, C83.019.272.828.3.288
18Werth, J95.518.092.110.1.292
19Marte, S88.515.867.936.4.291
20Saunders, M98.720.888.310.4.273
21Puig, Y98.917.274.211.8.296
22Soler, J74.233.7134.86.7.292
23Upton, J81.630.7108.18.5.270
24Cruz, N85.239.2105.73.9.271
25Pollock, A92.815.854.331.7.302
26Jones, A82.027.089.46.5.281
27Gordon, A92.720.278.912.8.266
28Springer, G91.540.7103.710.2.231
29Nieuwenhuis, K85.716.185.721.4.259
30Pence, H97.818.568.312.0.277
31Cespedes, Y89.022.0100.07.0.260
32Braun, R77.021.591.712.5.266
33Smolinski, J83.720.983.70.0.349
34Calhoun, K109.520.770.66.1.272
35Holliday, M86.820.994.14.2.272
36Polanco, G108.315.271.530.3.235
37Gardner, B94.118.462.722.7.256
38Davis, R83.310.466.446.9.282
39Ellsbury, J74.116.773.040.7.271
40Cabrera, M85.616.977.16.3.301
41Hunter, T77.618.690.74.4.286
42Yelich, C96.99.355.721.6.284
43Reddick, J87.619.889.31.7.264
44Ozuna, M76.524.490.33.2.269
45Gonzalez, C80.825.487.76.9.238
46Lough, D106.913.855.227.6.247
47Bruce, J86.421.980.314.6.217
48Davis, K83.826.382.64.8.244
49Garcia, A66.324.4101.214.0.244
50Ruggiano, J77.716.175.05.4.281
Before we get into our fantasy outfielder analysis, we need to bring you up to speed on how we analyzed this year's crop of outfielders, why our criteria is different, and even more importantly how it's going to ultimately help you all season long with scouring the waiver wires to replace your injured or otherwise-sucky players. We've taken our fantasy analysis a step further than the other sites with the outfielders in 2015. We have the:
  • Top 50 outfielders in the standard 5x5 categories.
  • Top 50 outfielders projected to 600 At Bats.
  • Top 50 outfielders based on 3x3 stats (Runs, HR, RBI) - the stats you care about the most. Internally, we call this the "Goon Rankings" but the jury is still out as to whether that moniker will stick. Moving on...

Standard 5x5 Fantasy Rankings

This one's a "duh." This is arguably the most-reliable source of fantasy baseball information available: the rankings in the standard 5x5 stats of Runs, HR, RBI, SB and Batting Average. It also lets you know who (mostly) played a full season and who put up the best fantasy numbers during that full season. What it doesn't tell you, however, is who was on pace for a top-notch fantasy performance before being cut down by an injury.

Fantasy Stats Projected out to 600 At Bats

Projecting everyone out to an even playing field (i.e.: 600 at bats) doesn't just let you know who was on pace for what in terms of fantasy performance. More importantly, projected stats let you know what you can expect out of a player when he's in your lineup.

Remember that you may only have a certain outfielder in your lineup for a few days at a time when he has a good matchup, or for a few weeks while he fills in for an injured player on your roster. While you may not benefit from a full season of stats, looking at how players compare to each other when it's apples-to-apples will let you know what you can expect from a guy when he's in your lineup.

For instance, Steve Pearce ranked 35th among all fantasy outfielders in standard, season-long 5x5 stats, however, he accumulated those stats in just 102 games and just 338 At Bats. Projected out to 600 AB, Pearce suddenly jumps up the rankings to #14 among all fantasy outfielders, a clear indication that his stats - while actually in your lineup - will make a much more significant impact than, say, Khris Davis who put up slightly better overall 5x5 stats, but it took him an extra 163 At Bats to get there when compared to Pearce.

Of course, there are cases where the 600 At Bat projections are a bit skewed from a player having a short, yet awesome stint in the majors. For example, the guy who tops our list of 600 AB Projected outfielders is Rusney Castillo. Castillo projected out to 100 runs, 33 HR and 100 RBI while hitting .333 and stealing 50 bases... none of those stats are going to happen. Nonetheless, it does tell you the impact he could have had in your lineup in his brief, 10-game stint with the Red Sox last year. Rusney Castillo may be a starter for the Red Sox this season, but he's 5'8", 186 lbs., so there's no way those projections will come to fruition. He may crack 10-15 HR with a .280 average and 20-25 stolen bases, so he's still a decent sleeper pick, but we just wanted to set the record straight that the 600 At Bat projections can be skewed if there isn't a significant cross-section of data to use (in Castillo's case, there were just 10 games of stats to dissect).

The 600 At Bat projections may turn out to be useful for guys like Scott Van Slyke and JD Martinez. Scott Van Slyke may be forced into long-term duty in the Dodgers' lineup this season, so looking at his 600 at bat projections will help you understand what you can expect out of him if he plays on a more-consistent basis in 2015. Imagining him playing in 150 games last year as a full-time player, you wouldn't be too surprised to see his projected stats come to fruition (91 runs, 31 HR and 82 RBI). We'd expect fewer runs and HR, but not by a lot.

Likewise, JD Martinez solidified himself as an everyday player in Detroit after last season, although it took him a while to get there. Projecting his 123 game, 441 AB season out to 600 ABs, and you'll see numbers you may be able to expect out of JD Martinez in 2015: 78 runs, 31 HR and 103 RBI. He may not hit over .300, but we still see his production being pretty accurate to the 600 at bats projections.

In general, the 600 AB projections are helpful for guys who missed time with injuries as well as guys who got called up mid-season or guys who got nudged into a starting role somewhat unexpectedly. Now that we know AJ Pollock is (supposedly) going to be the leadoff guy for the Arizona Diamondbacks, his 600 at bat projections give us the most-accurate depiction of what to expect from him in a full season at the top of the order. 93 runs, 16 HR, 54 RBI and 32 stolen bases should be pretty accurate to what his 2015 fantasy stats look like. If anything, we see his stolen bases staying around the 20-25 mark, but we wouldn't be surprised to see him crack the 30 stolen base mark.
Another guy to look at in our 600 at bat fantasy projection list is Pirates' outfielder, Gregory Polanco. The Pirates are a solid offensive team, and Gregory Polanco is slated to hit #2 in the lineup after Josh Harrison. Of course, with Andrew McCutchen hitting behind him, Polanco will score plenty of runs so long as he gets on base. Probably not the mathematically-projected 108 runs, but 90-100 is not out of the question. The other numbers seem doable (15 HR, 72 RBI), and we see his batting average rising to the .270 range, too. Also, 30 stolen bases may be a bit much, but 20+ is more than reasonable.

Fantasy Outfielder Rankings: 3x3 Stats (Runs, HR, RBI)

3x3 RANKPlayerGABRHRRBI
1Trout, M15760211536111
2Bautista, J15555310135103
3Stanton, G1455398937105
4Cruz, N1596138740108
5Jones, A159644882996
6McCutchen, A146548892583
7Brantley, M156611942097
8Cespedes, Y1526008922100
9Upton, J1545667729102
10Gomez, C148574952373
11Kemp, M150541772589
12Pence, H1626501062074
13Holliday, M156574832090
14Byrd, M154591712585
15Ozuna, M153565722385
16Dickerson, C131436742476
17Gordon, A156563871974
18Werth, J147534851682
19Puig, Y148558921669
20Blackmon, C154593821972
21Calhoun, K127493901758
22Granderson, C155564732066
23Cabrera, M139568811673
24Hunter, T142549711783
25Gardner, B148555871758
26Davis, K144501702269
27Braun, R135530681981
28Martinez, J123441572376
29Bruce, J137493711866
30Ellsbury, J149575711670
31Viciedo, D145523652158
32Yelich, C14458294954
33Markakis, N155642811450
34Heyward, J149573741158
35Marte, S135495731356
36Ackley, D143502641465
37Pearce, S102338512149
38Arcia, O103372462057
39Morse, M131438481661
40Stubbs, D132388671543
41Springer, G78295452051
42Reddick, J109363531254
43Crisp, C12646368947
44Smith, S136443551248
45Brown, D144473471063
46Davis, R13446164851
47Beltran, C109403461549
48Choo, S123455581340
49Trumbo, M88328371461
50Joyce, M14041851952
Giancarlo Stanton
As long as Giancarlo Stanton is healthy - both physically and mentally - after getting hit in the face with a fastball to end his 2014 season, he will lead the league in HR.


Of course, for those of you who just wanna "goon it up" and go after all the power-hitters (which isn't a bad draft strategy, in all fairness), here's a brand new fantasy ranking system we put together. We call it the "Goon Rankings." It keeps track of the stats that everyone loves to see fill their box scores: Home Runs, RBI and Runs Scored only.

We've all drafted that way at one point or another (if not annually), figuring that, if a guy hits a home run, that means he automatically scores a run and drives in at least 1 RBI. On top of that, it's also a base hit, so it also helps raise your batting average. You figure if you win those categories, stolen bases can go to hell in your fantasy league.
Top Fantasy Outfielder, Mike Trout
While Mike Trout abandons the speed game, his power numbers continue to improve.
Ironically, the guy at the top of this list led the majors with 49 stolen bases 3 seasons ago. But there's no need to go all in-depth on a guy like Mike Trout. Draft Mike Trout and, if for some reason he decides to stop striking out so much in 2015, expect a boost in his numbers across the board. Just imagine what he would do if he dropped his strikeouts down from 184 to even 134. Give Mike Trout just 50 more balls in play and you're looking 40 HR, 120 runs, 120 RBI and maybe even 20-25 stolen bases. Now those are MVP numbers.
Picture
Michael Brantley was statistically the top 5x5 fantasy outfielder in all of baseball last year.
Michael Brantley topped all outfielders in fantasy baseball last year in 5x5 stat production, although it didn't seem like it. Brantley simply filled up the box score with something every single day, it seemed, while on his way to a career year. He hit .327 with 20 HR, 97 RBI and 94 runs scored while also stealing 23 bases. Other than his batting average, none of those stats merits him a top pick individually, but when you see there are no weaknesses in his offensive output, you're going to have to draft him early or pay a pretty penny for him in an auction draft. Expect his average to drop to .300-ish, but the rest of the numbers should still remain.
Baseball fans everywhere are hoping and praying that Giancarlo Stanton has fully recovered from his horrific injury near the end of his 2014 season. Physically, he'll recover just fine. Mentally, however, there's a long list of guys who were on their way to stardom when being hit in the head with a pitch ended everything. Stanton has the full confidence of the Marlins' front office who just dropped off a fully-loaded fleet of Brinks trucks to Stanton's home, so he has that going for him. The reason we say baseball fans everywhere are hoping and praying he's okay is because Giancarlo Stanton is the guy, now, who you wait to watch on SportsCenter just to see if he hit a home run. When Stanton hits a bomb, it's not just a standard-issue, 350-foot shot. It's usually some guided missile headed to Cuba or a towering monstrosity of a home run to dead center field that brings down a moon rock with it. If Stanton is mentally, fully recovered, we see him leading the "Goon Rankings" next year with 50 home runs under his belt after the 2015 season.
George Springer is the real deal, too, folks. Expect him to climb the Goon List next year, no problem. Springer is a 30-35 home run guy, although he's going to strike out about 180 times this season. He should see his batting average crack .240-.250 in 2015, and the Astros actually have a pretty exciting lineup offensively this year. They're going to be reminiscent of the early-90s Detroit Tigers with Rob Deer, Cecil Fielder and Mickey Tettleton who played all-or-nothing ball, crushing what they hit 450 feet and powering suburbs when they swing and miss.
Petco Park, San Diego
Houston Astros' Outfielder George Springer

Everyone is talking about Matt Kemp and what he has to do to prove he's worth the trade to San Diego. Matt Kemp really just needs to stay healthy and he'll be himself. Justin Upton, on the other hand, is the one in San Diego who is expected to be solid, injury-free, issue-free and ready to go from week one through the playoffs for the Padres. Justin Upton has crazy power, and he should be just fine in San Diego, even if it is a pitchers' park. We fully expect (like everyone else) that Justin Upton will be the unquestionable constant in San Diego. The instant Matt Kemp pulls up limping in the field, and the instant Will Myers goes 0 for 4 with a pair of strikeouts, you just watch the media frenzy that starts predicting their respective doom. Justin Upton, on the other hand, will be just fine from wire to wire and will put himself back up on the Goon List for next season with 25-30 HR, 100 RBI and 85 runs scored.


Other Positions:

C   1B   2B   3B   SS   OF   DH   All Hitters   SP   RP

Picture
Mike Trout finally won his first MVP award in 2014. Finally... at the ripe, old age of 23.

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Runs Scored

RankPlayerRuns
1Trout, M115
2Pence, H106
3Bautista, J101
4Gomez, C95
5Brantley, M94
5Yelich, C94
5Span, D94
8Puig, Y92
9Calhoun, K90
10Stanton, G89
10McCutchen, A89
10Cespedes, Y89
13Jones, A88
14Cruz, N87
14Gordon, A87
14Gardner, B87
17Werth, J85
18Holliday, M83
19Blackmon, C82
20Cabrera, M81
20Markakis, N81
22Upton, J77
22Kemp, M77
24Eaton, A76
25Dickerson, C74
25Heyward, J74


Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Home Runs

RankPlayerHR
1Cruz, N40
2Stanton, G37
3Trout, M36
4Bautista, J35
5Jones, A29
5Upton, J29
7McCutchen, A25
7Kemp, M25
7Byrd, M25
10Dickerson, C24
11Gomez, C23
11Ozuna, M23
11Martinez, J23
14Cespedes, Y22
14Davis, K22
16Viciedo, D21
16Pearce, S21
18Pence, H20
18Brantley, M20
18Holliday, M20
18Granderson, C20
18Arcia, O20
18Springer, G20
24Gordon, A19
24Blackmon, C19
24Braun, R19

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Runs Batted In (RBI)

RankPlayerRBI
1Trout, M111
2Cruz, N108
3Stanton, G105
4Bautista, J103
5Upton, J102
6Cespedes, Y100
7Brantley, M97
8Jones, A96
9Holliday, M90
10Kemp, M89
11Byrd, M85
11Ozuna, M85
13McCutchen, A83
13Hunter, T83
15Werth, J82
16Braun, R81
17Dickerson, C76
17Martinez, J76
19Pence, H74
19Gordon, A74
21Gomez, C73
21Cabrera, M73
23Blackmon, C72
24Ellsbury, J70
25Davis, K69
25Puig, Y69


Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Stolen Bases (SB)

RankPlayerSB
1Hamilton, B56
2Revere, B49
3Ellsbury, J39
4Davis, R36
4Dyson, J36
6Gomez, C34
7Martin, L31
7Span, D31
9Marte, S30
9Young Jr., E30
9Schafer, J30
12Blackmon, C28
12Cain, L28
14Jones, J27
15Brantley, M23
15Crawford, C23
17Gardner, B21
17Yelich, C21
17Fuld, S21
20Heyward, J20
20Jackson, A20
20Stubbs, D20
20Upton, B20
20Gentry, C20
25Crisp, C19
25Inciarte, E19

Top 25 Fantasy Outfielders: Batting Average (AVG)

RankPlayerAVG
1Brantley, M.327
2Martinez, J.315
3McCutchen, A.314
4Dickerson, C.312
5Revere, B.306
6Jay, J.303
7Span, D.302
8Cabrera, M.301
8Cain, L.301
10Eaton, A.300
11Puig, Y.296
12Werth, J.292
13Marte, S.291
14Blackmon, C.288
14Stanton, G.288
16Trout, M.287
16Kemp, M.287
18Bautista, J.286
18Hunter, T.286
20Aoki, N.285
21Yelich, C.284
21Gomez, C.284
23Davis, R.282
24Jones, A.281
24Lagares, J.281



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