Masahiro Tanaka is a highly-touted, 24-0 pitcher out of Japan with an ERA of 1.27. He's only 25 years old and he already has 7 years of professional baseball experience in Japan. His career ERA in Japan was 2.30 with a 1.108 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. So how does one translate (no pun intended) those Japanese stats into Major League Baseball? More importantly for us fantasy nerds, when should we draft him, or what should we pay for him in a fantasy auction? In other words, what's Masahiro  Tanaka's Fantasy Worth?

On one hand, you don't pay a #3 starter $22-million per year. By comparison, Zack Greinke makes about $24.5-million per year, and he's a solid #2 starter behind the best pitcher in baseball... in a great pitcher's park, to boot. On the other hand, Masahiro Tanaka may be the real deal, and Brian Cashman may just be downplaying the dude's ability, just in case he turns into the next Hideki Irabu.

By comparison, Hideo Nomo came onto the scene in the US at the age of 26. His stats in Japan were as follows: 3.15 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 over 5 seasons in Japan.Nomo then had 2 good seasons with th eDodgers before the league figured him out.

As another, more-recent comparison, Yu Darvish spent 7 seasons pitching in Japan, starting at age 18, just like Tanaka. Darvish's ERA over that span was 1.99 (including 5 consecutive seasons under 2.00), 0.985 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. When Darvish came over to the United States, his ERA jumped to 3.90 in his first season (still not terrible), and then he improved (unlike other former-Japanese-League pitchers) in his second year to 2.83. His WHIP also improved from 1.280 to 1.073, and his K/9 actually improved, too, going from 10.4 K/9 to 11.9 K/9 and leading the league in total strikeouts.

Most importantly, Tanaka's stats are more-consistent with Darvish's, and this leads us to believe that Masahiro Tanaka will develop in much the same way as Darvish. Yu Darvish took his lumps in his first season while he figured out batters. Taking Hideo Nomo, by comparison, the league took 2 seasons to figure him out, and once they did, he took years to recover and learn how to get ahead of hitters again.

If you're in a standard fantasy draft, we wouldn't take Masahiro Tanaka before the 5th round. In fact, we'd probably wait until the 8th-10th rounds, even. Pitching is strong again, and there are tons of good options out there who are proven. HOWEVER... there's always that one idiot in every league who buys the hype and tries to look like a genius to everyone and drafts a guy like Tanaka way too early. That means that he'll probably go between the 3rd-5th rounds in your league. Don't be that guy unless you really, really like him. Maybe you spent time in Japan watching him pitch. Maybe, before your draft, you plan on going to every Yankees' spring training game to watch him pitch and just maybe he'll be the most-dominant pitcher ever. Regardless, we're here to tell you to expect a year very similar to Yu Darvish's first year. Tanaka is either going to have an ERA over 4.00 because he doesn't strike out nearly as many guys as Yu Darvish, or he's going to have an ERA of around 3.50 because he's going to figure out very quickly that he can rely on his fielders. Still, we recommend drafting him in the 8th-10th rounds just because there are so many other proven options out there.

If you're in an auction draft, this gives you a chance at him no matter what. Depending on the other pitchers you get in your auction, we would be fine with spending anywhere from $5-$20 on Masahiro Tanaka. We know that's a big window, but think about it: If you've already spent money on Kershaw, Strasburg and Kimbrel, you're not going to spend another $20 on an unproven rookie, no matter what his Japanese stats were. However, if you get out-bid for the big-name pitchers, or if you spend big on a bunch of offensive power hitters, you're going to have to shop around for bargain, sleeper and comeback pitchers. Suddenly, spending $20 on Masahiro Tanaka doesn't look so bad when your other options are Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Dempster and a scrub to be named later. Now, Tanaka might be the best potential pick left in the draft. You know that Dempster has a career 4.35 ERA and 1.432 WHIP... you don't know what you're gonna get out of Tanaka, but the upside potential is much, much better than a lot of the other options.

Watch Masahiro Tanaka in spring training and take his stats more seriously than you would any other pitcher. He's coming into a whole new world and it's unlikely that he's not going to want to pitch his best right out of the gates. Not only does he nee to prove to the Yankees that he's worth the money, he also needs to prove to himself early that American Major Leaguers are just another bunch of guys with bats in their hands that can't hit his stuff. He'll be treating spring training like real, regular season games. Read his stats, watch him pitch and then re-evaluate his worth on draft day.

By Justin Moreau

But then he came back down to Earth a bit. He got lit up by the Arizona Diamondbacks in a no-decision where he only lasted 4.2 innings... but then he settled back into a groove over his next two starts, finally recording his first major league win on June 11 against the Mets.

After his first four starts, he had an ERA of 4.37 - not bad for a 21-year old rookie trying to make his way in the bigs. Nonetheless, Manager Mike Matheny sent him into the bullpen to do some mop-up and Hold work. To make a long story short, by year's end, Wacha dropped his ERA down to 2.78, finished with a WHIP of 1.098, and struck out 65 batters in 64.2 innings pitched. He also flirted with a no-hitter on his last outing of the regular season.

So far in the post-season, Wacha's ERA is 1.00, he's 4-0, and his WHIP is 0.704 (holy crap, man!!!), and he has struck out 28 batters in 17 innings pitched.

We'll be the first to tell you we're impressed with Wacha's command. Especially when a kid comes into the league throwing gas 80% of the time, we expect him to take his lumps. But that's usually because these guys come into the league throwing 4-seam fastballs with no movement. Macha's fastball has excellent movement, diving down and in on right-handed batters.

Still, though, he's been through the league once already, for the most part, and he's been in the national spotlight in the post-season. Major League hitters will be looking to adjust to the movement on his fastball, which means Wacha is going to have to throw it less and mix in - and maybe even learn - a few more pitches, maybe more often than he likes.

The bottom line is this: treat him in 2014 just like you treated Kris Medlen or AJ Griffin in last season's fantasy draft: he's gonna be good, but he's not gonna be this good. Expect an ERA around 3.00-3.50, and if you get something better, take it. Also expect a WHIP around 1.10 and about an 8.50 K/9.

We expect Wacha to go through some growing pains in 2014 - someone's bound to study enough film on him by the time they face him. Also, pitchers like Michael Wacha tend to give it all up in one or two games, so you'll have that one, devastating week, then it'll be smooth-sailing for a few weeks after that. Plus, with a full season in St. Louis - and with that nasty bullpen behind him, We'd be shocked to See Michael Wacha earn anything lower than 15 Wins on 2014.

Well, here's the deal, man: if you want Wacha (especially if you're in a keeper league), you'd better draft him early. Normally, just based on the expected stats, age, and upside, he would go around the 6th-7th round. However, since he's the media darling of Major League Baseball right now, he's going to stay in the public eye all through Spring Training in 2014. So long as he's healthy through Spring Training, you can expect someone to draft him before the 5th round.

In an auction draft, he's going to crack the $25 mark easily. He puts up big numbers, he's only 22 years old, there's almost no chance of him getting hurt, and he still has to run through some of the league for the first time, which is definitely to his advantage. He's only faced 11 different teams so far, and he's only faced the Pirates, Cubs, Reds and Braves more than once (and only twice, each, with the exception of the Pirates for a thir timein the playoffs... and we all know how that went for the Pirates). Most of league will be seeing Wacha for only the first or second time ever, and you can bet they'll be a bit nervous when they do having seen him buzz-saw his way through the playoffs.

So, draft Michael Wacha earlier than you should because you're gonna have to if you want him, and spend more than you think you should on Wacha in an auction draft... because you're gonna have to.