Fantasy Baseball 2016 > Rankings > Shortstops > Ian Desmond

#5 Ian Desmond: Fantasy Predictions for 2016

We've been telling you to draft Ian Desmond ahead of Troy Tulowitzki for three years straight, now, and we've largely been correct (due only to Tulowitzki's very-predictable, injury-plagued seasons). But this year, we're dropping Ian Desmond down a bit. For one, we've entered the Carlos Correa era. Aside from that, Tulo has the opportunity to DH in the AL, now, and Francisco Lindor an Xander Bogaerts are more-likely to help your fantasy team this season.

When Ian Desmond had his breakout year in 2012 at the age of 26, we saw that season as a sign of things to come. On top of that, while Troy Tulowitzki was lighting up the box scores just prior to spending extended time on the Disabled List, Ian Desmond was going about his business, steadily building up stats at the fantasy shortstop position. 70 Runs, 20+ HR, 20+ SB and 70-90+ RBI for three consecutive seasons out of your shortstop is a good road to victory in fantasy baseball.

What Worries Us About Ian Desmond in 2016

The biggest issue we see with Ian Desmond's stats over the past two seasons is his significant drop-off in batting average.

Ian Desmond Fantasy Stats and Indicators

Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	23	21	82	9	23	7	2	4	12	1	0	5	14	.280	.318	0.561	0.879
2010	24	154	525	59	141	27	4	10	65	17	5	28	109	.269	.308	0.392	0.700
2011	25	154	584	65	148	27	5	8	49	25	10	35	139	.253	.298	0.358	0.656
2012	26	130	513	72	150	33	2	25	73	21	6	30	113	.292	.335	0.511	0.845
2013	27	158	600	77	168	38	3	20	80	21	6	43	145	.280	.331	0.453	0.784
2014	28	154	593	73	151	26	3	24	91	24	5	46	183	.255	.313	0.430	0.743
2015	29	156	583	69	136	27	2	19	62	13	5	45	187	.233	.290	0.384	0.674

Ian Desmond's batting average dropped another 20 points while recording a career-worst 187 strikeouts... not good signs.

Fantasy Statistical Indicators

*Two years of a significant drop in batting average indicates either he's losing bat speed and/or pitchers have found a few new holes in his swings.
*Jumping from 145 strikeouts in '13 to 180+ strikeouts in each of the last two seasons indicates he hasn't figured out what's wrong with his swing, either.
*Drop in doubles from 38 down under 30 for two, straight seasons indicates line drives in the gaps or down the line are turning into routine fly-outs (or strikeouts).

Going from .292  in 2012 to .280 in 2013 wasn't a big deal, but going from .280 down to .255 was a bigger deal. Maybe it's a one-year anomaly, right? Happens to the best of 'em. But then he hit a dismal .233 in 2015.

Maybe the Nationals' clubhouse was too toxic for Desmond to be able to concentrate on hitting, but we're not interested in any ridiculous excuses like that. Te bottom line is that Ian Desmond is on an inexplicable downfall, statistically and fantasy-wise (for him), but you can still count on him for 15-20 HR, 60 RBI and 10+ stolen bases. We also don't predict his batting average will stay as low. We wouldn't be surprised to see him stay in the .250 range again, but regardless, don't be shy in drafting him. Chances are good you'll get him a lot cheaper this year than any other year. Take him accordingly and hope for a bounce-back season. He's only 30 years old this year, so we're not worried about his age being a factor.