#5 Miguel Sano: Fantasy Predictions for 2016
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Miguel Sano strikes out way too much, but the rest of his numbers just can't be ignored. 18 HR, 52 RBI and 46 Runs in 80 games is awesome especially for a 22-year-old - or for anyone - in his rookie season. On top of all those hefty, power fantasy stats, he still hit .269 despite striking out in 42.7% of his at bats. But believe it or not, that could work into his favor, at least a little bit.
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Miguel Sano Fantasy Stats and Indicators
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When a player strikes out as much as Miguel Sano does, that means that there's not a pitcher, pitching coach or manager in the league who's afraid to pitch to him. Miguel Sano is 42.7% likely to strike out while he's only 26.9% likely to get a base hit. Even more, he's only 6.5% likely to hit a home run. As a pitcher, I'd take those odds. Just don't make a mistake and he won't hurt you... but there are a lot of mediocre pitchers out there who make a ton of mistakes, and Miguel Sano is ready to capitalize on them.
Expect 30 HR, 80 Runs and 90 RBI for Sano in 2016. He may only hit in the .250 range (and he'll almost certainly strike out 200 times if that matters in your league), but his productivity - even if he only hits .220 - make him worth having in your lineup. |
We expect Miguel Sano to hit 30+ HR in 2016, despite his equally-expected 200+ strikeouts.
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Fantasy Statistical Indicators*No drop off in stats from AA to MLB means he's ready for the big leagues (80 games is a solid data set for fantasy stats).
*Age 22 means he's still going to develop a more-consistent swing. Expect power numbers to rise over time if he reduces his strike out rate. *119 strikeouts in just 80 games (1.49 per game) vs. 68 strikeouts in 66 games in AA (1.03 per game): If MLB pitchers find a hole or two in his swing that he just can't fix (see Chis Carter, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, Rob Deer), expect his numbers to fall across the board. However, his AA stats indicate that he'll probably improve his strikeout rate over time. |