Fantasy Baseball 2016 > Rankings > Shortstops > Starlin Castro

#11 Starlin Castro: Fantasy Predictions for 2016

Did you know that Starlin Castro is already a three-time all-star? He doesn't even turn 26 until March, and he was the odd-man out in Chicago to make room for everyone else. Go figure...

This year, Starlin Castro is expected to be the New York Yankees' starting second baseman. Castro goes to another potent lineup in another hitter-friendly park, so there's no reason to think he won't have a terrific fantasy season in 2016.

Over his career, thus far, Castro has remained pretty consistent with his power numbers (10-14 HR, roughly 60-80 RBI). In terms of his base stealing, it looks like he's just given up trying to figure out how to read pitchers. Now that he finds himself with a station-to-station, American League team, we don't expect any more than 5 stolen bases from him again... okay, certainly no more than 10, that's for sure.

Fantasy Expectations for Starlin Castro in 2016

Let's reel this back in a bit: we don't want to set the bar too high for Starlin Castro. A lot of his success depends on guys like Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury to remain healthy... a feat that no one on Earth is willing predict. But, while even 3 of those 5 guys are in the lineup, Starlin Castro has a chance to really clean up for fantasy owners this year.

Starlin Castro Fantasy Stats and Indicators

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2010	20	125	506	463	53	139	31	5	3	41	10	8	29	71	.300	.347	0.408	0.755
2011	21	158	715	674	91	207	36	9	10	66	22	9	35	96	.307	.341	0.432	0.773
2012	22	162	691	646	78	183	29	12	14	78	25	13	36	100	.283	.323	0.430	0.753
2013	23	161	705	666	59	163	34	2	10	44	9	6	30	129	.245	.284	0.347	0.631
2014	24	134	569	528	58	154	33	1	14	65	4	4	35	100	.292	.339	0.438	0.777
2015	25	151	578	547	52	145	23	2	11	69	5	5	21	91	.265	.296	0.375	0.671

Starlin Castro is surrounded by power bats. All he has to do is get on base this year and he may be the steal of the draft among all shortstops.

Fantasy Statistical Indicators

*Low number of Runs would normally seem like an anomaly for a guy in the middle of such a powerful lineup, but given the consistency of low Runs scored, it may be accurate.
*Low number of stolen bases, low stolen base percentage of success; move to the AL with an old, slow team: expect 5 stolen bases at best.
*Consistent power numbers and power hitters all around him: may see a spike in power, but probably not more than 15-20 HR, if that.
*Career-worst in walks and his second-lowest batting average: if he was old, we'd be worried. He's 26 this year so we expect a return to the .280 range.

Looking at Castro's stats last year, we don't see how it was even possible for him to have only scored 52 Runs in 151 games (547 AB). With all those power bats around him in Chicago, he should have scored 80 Runs, at least. Having said that, he has historically scored a low number of runs, but those were for bad Cubs teams. Last year, we think, was a statistical anomaly. If the old farts in the Yankees' lineup stay even a little bit healthy, there's just no way Starlin Castro can score fewer than 75 Runs. And believe me, I wanted to say 85+, but given his strange past, we'll stick to 75+ and call anything else gravy. His other numbers: HR, RBI, average, should all stay pretty much the same. Take Starlin Castro around the 6th-10th rounds, and don't be surprised if you get him for a under $5 in an auction when everyone else forgets about him. Is he worth more than that? Yes. Will other fantasy owners remember him? No. Starlin Castro is a guy you can really sneak onto your fantasy team for next to nothing, and it may be the steal of the draft.