2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base
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Wow, man... lots of talent at the first base position in 2016. First base used to be where you hid your power-hitting, knuckle-dragging goons out on the field, but not so much, anymore. Paul Goldschmidt led all fantasy first basemen in 2015 again with his gaudy statistics (33 HR, 110 RBI, 103 Runs, .321 average and 21 SB), and there are plenty more super-talented first basemen out there who can carry the majority of your team's load.
Anthony Rizzo surprised everyone last season. Not with his bat so much as his speed. Rizzo reeled off 17 stolen bases to go along with his 31 HR, 101 RBI and 94 Runs. While we don't expect he'll eclipse double-digit steals this season, we also don't predict any reduction in his batting stats. The Cubs' lineup is absolutely stacked from top to bottom so there's no way to pitch around Rizzo again this year. And now, we'll go ahead and address the Miguel Cabrera issue: |
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We see minimal issues with Miguel Cabrera. Yes, he was hurt for a good portion of last season, but the guy still hit .338 in 429 ABs (119 Games). He's a beast and, supposedly, he's going to be healthy. We see a lot of so-called experts out there already throwing Cabrera out with the trash, but we're not jumping on that bandwagon. Hell, even if you do draft him and he only plays 100 games, those100 games will definitely bring you some wins. Plus, there are so many top-notch first basemen right now, you'll be able to make up the difference pretty easily in HR and RBI at the very least. Don't be afraid to draft Cabrera. Last season was his first with any significant injury and he's still only 33 in April.
Chris Davis, on the other hand, could have issues... but we doubt it. He strikes out a lot and his 2014 season was awful, but he came back nicely and led the league with 47 HR last year (along with 208 strikeouts). The problem with big strikeout guys is that they tend to go in huge slumps that can completely ruin their season, and are even sometimes career-ending or career-threatening (Adam Dunn, anyone? Chris Carter - are you reading this?). We think he'll be fine, but, at the time of this analysis, Chris Davis is still a free agent. There's not much danger in finding a ballpark that he can't hit the ball out of, but we'd definitely like to see his agent restrict offers to AL teams, only. |
Fantasy First Basemen Rankings 2016
Click here to read our 2015 First Base Archives.
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First Basemen We Like in 2016
#10: Eric Hosmer |
#15: Mark Teixeira |
We think Eric Hosmer is in a great situation: two straight World Series appearances, they won it last year, his teammates are always littered around the bases so there's always someone to drive in, he's a good contact hitter, and he's only 26 years old. The Royals don't look like they're going to slow down at all in 2016, and Eric Hosmer is destined to be right in the middle of their lineup. Barring injury, we don't see any way that Hosmer doesn't remain at least consistent with his numbers last season, and they may even improve. Expect 15 HR, 90 RBI and 85 Runs scored, but don't be surprised (or mad) if he goes for 20+ HR and 100 RBI. He's primed for a career year (again) and he's finally at that magical age of 26 when his power and patience at the plate all start coming together.
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We can't believe we're saying this, but, yes, draft Mark Teixeira. As a caveat, we want you to know that he will get hurt again in 2015, so we want you draft another first baseman along with him - someone else as high on the list as you can get. If Mark Teixeira proved one thing last year, it's that he produces. He drives in runs with home runs and he hits them in bunches. He, alone, can carry your team for an entire week, and he can do it for more than just one week. Just expect his season-ending injury around July-August and be prepared with your backup. Take what you can get out of Teixeira and consider it a bargain. He shouldn't go before the 5th round in your league, nor should he go for more than $10 in an auction draft. Last year, he was a late-round, $1 bargain, but that won't be the case this year.
#11: Prince FielderWe aren't trying to be mean, but there's no way a guy the size of Prince Fielder can go on only hitting 23 home runs. He only struck out 88 times and he hit .305 in 158 games played last season. From 2006-2013, 21.2% of Prince Fielder's hits were home runs. Last season, he was at only 12.3% home runs to hits. We suspect he was still recovering from his 2014 injury last season, but we also suspect he'll be back to power-hitting form. Don't be surprised with a return to 30+ HR and 100 RBI for Prince in Texas in 2016.
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Sleepers at First Base for 2016
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#25: Travis Shaw (Red Sox) |
 Save Greg Bird for next year. Depending on Mark Teixeira's ongoing health issues, he could be "the guy" by then.
Gregory Bird went off last season in his short amount of playing time. After Mark Teixeira (predictably) had a season-ending injury, Bird took over at first base for the Yankees. In just 46 games, Bird hit 11 HR, 31 RBI and scored 26 Runs while hitting a respectable .261. Averaging that our over 162 games, that ranked him 11th overall in the standard 5x5 fantasy stats. BUT...
Greg Bird is out for the entire 2016 season with a bad right shoulder. Sucks! #26: Chris Colabello (Blue Jays)First, we're not totally buying Chris Colabello's act from 2015, but, he will be in the Blue Jay's lineup, and that alone may be worth a shot. Last year was the first time he saw real playing time in the bigs - and he was 31. Weird, man... but he hit .321 with 15 HR in 101 games. He strikes out a ton, but in AAA in 2013, he hit .352; in AAA in 2014, he hit .268; then in AAA in 2015, prior to landing in Toronto, he hit .337 in Buffalo. All in all, the dude can hit, and they're allegedly planning on giving him significant playing time, or at least hitting time as a DH/first baseman. Take him late or for a buck - it could work.
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We would be remiss... in fact, it would be irresponsible if we didn't mention Travis Shaw right after mentioning Greg Bird. Shaw put up nearly as good of numbers as Bird did, pacing for the equivalent of a 70+ Run, 30+ HR and 80+ RBI (actual stats in 65 games played: .270, 31 Runs, 13 HR, 36 RBI). He's in a situation that's pretty similar to Bird's, too: the Red Sox are planning to try Hanley Ramirez out at first base this year, and Hanley Ramirez is almost as likely to hit the disabled list as Mark Teixeira. Aside from that, though, David Ortiz is still the DH, so there's not much room for Shaw, there. Likewise, the Red Sox outfield is filled with talent, but if Rusney Castillo struggles, we may see Shaw get a shot out there. Not likely, but stranger things have happened (like Hanley Ramirez trying to play left field in Fenway Park). Like Bird, don't draft Travis Shaw early, but take a flyer on him in the later rounds or in the $1 auction rounds.
#18: Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)Don't lie and tell us you didn't forget about Ryan Zimmerman, too. He hit 16 HR and drove in 73 RBI in just 95 games. He also scored 43 Runs while hitting just .249. He's a career .283 hitter and he's still only 31, so we expect his batting average to be much better in 2016. He's another guy, like Teixeira, who always seems to get hurt, but he can single-handedly win you a few weeks while he's healthy enough to play and on one of his hot streaks. Take him in the 5th-10th rounds or get him for under $10 if you can in an auction. He could be the steal of the draft, even if he only plays 120 games.
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Rockies' First Basemen: Mark Reynolds and Ben Paulsen
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What's not to like about a goon like Mark Reynolds hitting in Colorado? Well, to be fair, we'll tell you what's not to like: his career .230 average. Even worse, his average over the past three years is .216. The 2016 season will mark his 5th team in four seasons (CLE, NYY, MIL, StL, COL). But just putting the ball in play in Colorado gives him a chance to raise his batting average to .240, and that would only be because a few extra balls would leave the yard instead of being flyouts. Someone in every draft always takes a shot with Mark Reynolds, but this may be the best sleeper opportunity yet with him.
Mark Reynolds
Ben Paulsen ('15)
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Mark Reynolds' 5th team in 4 years may be his best stop ever: Colorado.
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Then again... Ben Paulsen played pretty well for the Rockies in 2015, so there's no saying that he won't win the starting job, outright. A bit of a late bloomer, Paulsen is entering his third year at the age of 28. Paulsen played in 116 games (325 AB) and hit .277 with 11 HR, 49 RBI and 42 Runs. He, like Reynolds, strikes out a ton (92 SO vs. 23 BB), so the Rockies are damned if they do, damned if they don't... but... Mark Reynolds is already a proven bust, and Paulsen still has a future ahead of him, by comparison, anyway.
Matt Adams (Cardinals)Dude is huge, dude hits for a decent average (.276 career), dude has natural power that will, eventually, lead to 25-40 HR - somewhere in there. He got hurt last year after a disappointing start, anyway, and now he's ready to come back. And let's face it: the Cardinals can do no wrong with their young talent, and Matt Adams is no exception. This may be the year for him, and you may be able to get him well after the 10th round and/or for $1-$3 in an auction draft. There's also speculation that Brandon Moss will be the starter at first base in St. Louis, but Matt Adams is younger and has more upside, and Moss has a .243 career average (and it's falling fast). Moss is tied up in a contract until 2017, but we can't see Matt Adams not getting playing time so long as he's healthy after Spring training.
Kennys Vargas (Twins)This guy was a trendy sleeper pick last year, but we weren't buying it quite yet. This year, however, he may prove more useful. The problem is that there really isn't a spot open for him this season, unless Joe Mauer gets injured again. Which leads us to...
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Joe Mauer (Twins) Joe Mauer won't kill ya, but, sadly, he's a last resort.
Once a premier fantasy catcher, he's now relegated to a low-end, first base sleeper. Gotta admit it hurts us to say that. Anyway, he's a career .313 hitter, but he's only hit .270 the past 2 seasons. The good news, however, is that last season, he set a career-best with 158 games played. He's battled injuries his entire career, but now that he's parked over at first base - and he's still only 33 this year - maybe you can count on him to at least show up. He'll get you some hits, some runs and a touch of power here and there, but don't expect a return to his MVP numbers of 2009. Sadly, he's just a stop-gap in case you're in a deep league with a bunch of injured guys on your roster.
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