Fantasy Worth of Michael Brantley in 2015

1/27/2015

Michael Brantley had a breakout season in 2014, hitting .327 with 20 HR, 97 RBI, 94 Runs, and 23 Stolen Bases. This is not out of the ordinary for players to break out at the 27-year-old mark, but how likely is it that this is the new norm for Michael Brantley?

Fantasy Statistical Indicators for Brantley

Players have up and down years all the time, but how do you know when the stats are indicative of great - or even greater - things to come in fantasy baseball?

HITS: One factor we see with Michael Brantley is that, aside from the standard 5x5 stats, he was also second in all of baseball with 200 Hits (only Jose Altuve had more base hits with 225).

(LACK OF) STRIKEOUTS: We all listened to our Little League coaches telling us to "make contact" and "put the ball in play." In today's game, however, strikeouts are more and more acceptable to both players and coaches... but not to Michael Brantley.

Michael Brantley's Fantasy Stats

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2011	24	CLE	114	496	451	63	120	24	4	7	46	13	5	34	76	0.266	0.318	0.384	0.702	173
2012	25	CLE	149	609	552	63	159	37	4	6	60	12	9	53	56	0.288	0.348	0.402	0.750	222
2013	26	CLE	151	611	556	66	158	26	3	10	73	17	4	40	67	0.284	0.332	0.396	0.728	220
2014	27	CLE	156	676	611	94	200	45	2	20	97	23	1	52	56	0.327	0.385	0.506	0.890	309

Michael Brantley played in 156 games in 2014. He recorded 611 At Bats, yet he only struck out 56 times. Likewise, he only walked 52 times. What does this tell us?

This tells us that Michael Brantley is progressing to be a great fantasy producer across the board. Of course, his value to the Cleveland Indians is ultimately more valuable, but let's talk about the predictors we see in his stats from a fantasy baseball perspective.

The fact that Brantley puts the ball in play is typically indicative that he will continue to produce, fantasy-wise. While we don't think he'll ever lead the league in home runs, he will continue to hit between 15-30 home runs every year. He'll also maintain decent speed until his early 30s, at least, and he'll keep his batting average around the .290-.310 mark, most likely.

Why Michael Brantley Had a Great Season

With his maturation - both physically and mentally - Michael Brantley was finally able to add a little more power to his swing in 2014. In 2011-2013, what used to be fly-ball outs are now home runs in 2014. What were simple, laced singles into the outfield were driven harder into the gaps and down the line for doubles instead of singles. What were tough ground outs before became harder grounders through the hole, leading to singles instead of ground-outs. Those singles led to more opportunities to steal bases, hence the uptick in that category, too. Now that he's achieved the 200-hit plateau, can he do it again? We think so. In fact, the only thing stopping Michael Brantley from 200 hits again may be added patience at the plate (AKA: more walks)... or injuries, of course, but we don't wanna jinx the guy.

The relative constant in Brantley's stats from 2011-2014 is that he puts the ball in play. He doesn't walk much, but he also doesn't strike out much. We're not gonna go and compare the guy to Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs just yet, but that may be because he has more power. Likewise, with his extra power, we're also not going to compare him to a guy like Vladimir Guerrero who swings at (and hits) everything in the same area code, but we think Michael Brantley is somewhere in between the high-average slap hitters and a power-hitter like Vlad Guerrero.

Expectations in 2015

Again, we don't wanna jinx the guy because, honestly, we miss the era of the good, contact hitter who's embarrassed to strikeout (no offense, AL MVP Mike Trout... you and your 184 strikeouts). While he may not put up the same numbers as last year, we do expect more than 20 HR, a .295-.310 batting average, 90+ Runs and RBI and another 20+ stolen bases in 2015.

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Beware the Seattle Mariners in 2015

1/22/2015

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The Seattle Mariners are flying under the radar a bit this off-season - a stark contrast to last year's media circus when they, surprisingly, signed Robinson Cano. This off-season, they signed Nelson Cruz, which is a huge boost in power for the Mariners, especially from the right side of the plate. The Mariners are stacked with left-handed hitters, all of whom have plenty of pop:

Logan Morrison, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, and, of course, the afore-mentioned Robinson Cano. They also have Seth Smith who's no slouch, and he definitely knows how to wear out pitchers and just get on base.

What was that? I heard someone question Logan Morrison...

You mark our fantasy-nerd words: Logan Morrison is a lock for 18+ Home Runs and 70+ RBI and a .250+ batting average, especially in this lineup. He's only 27 this year and he's in the middle of a lineup of young guys who all have that one, extra year of moderate success under their belt. You add Nelson Cruz into that mix to protect someone - any one of those guys - and you have a recipe for success, so long as Nelson Cruz stays healthy and stays away from any PED troubles.

Kyle Seager solidified his spot as a notable power hitter, and he's only 27 this season, too. Seager hit .268 with 25 HR and 96 RBI in 2014, and his batting average has improved in each of the past four seasons. 27-years-old is a typical breakout-season age in the major leagues, so for those of you who thought last year was his breakout year, this year could be even better.

Dustin Ackley hit 14 HR with 65 RBI in 2014, and he, too, turns 27 this season. With Austin Jackson and Seth Smith (presumably) in the outfield with him, they're a bunch of scrappy, tough outs. Jackson, especially - if he learns to be more patient at the plate - is extremely tough on opposing pitchers. The threat for Jackson to steal is significant enough to bother less-seasoned pitchers, although he may attempt fewer steals depending on how this offense jells together. If they're all hitting, Jackson may not run as much since there are so many guys to drive him in. Conversely, if the guys behind him aren't hitting, he'll be running more - maybe more than last year. Jackson only stole 20 bases in 2014, but get this: he stole 9 with Detroit in 100 games, but he stole 11 bases with Seattle in just 54 games. So, the initial indication is that he'll be running more this season, but with the addition of Nelson Cruz and the maturation of the rest of Seattle's power in the lineup, he may give the hitters behind him a few more pitches. Also, Austin Jackson is still only 28 years old this season, so he hasn't lost any speed.

Seattle's Dominant Starting Pitching

Felix Hernandez is money. You already know that. And if it seems like Felix Hernandez has already been pitching for a decade, it's because he has been pitching for a decade. Despite that, he'll still only be 29 years old in April. Now - let us be the first to warn you fantasy baseball nerds out there: just like we predicted CC Sabathia was overdue for an injury prior to last season, we're giving a similar warning about King Felix prior to this season. Given that Felix is in significantly better physical shape than CC Sabathia, we think it's less likely that Hernandez gets hurt this year, but still - we would be remiss... irresponsible, even, if we didn't warn you. Felix Hernandez has started more than 30 games in each of the last 9 seasons. He has also thrown more than 200 innings in each of the past 7 seasons. So... take it for what it's worth, but we honestly think he'll be okay at this pace, at least until he's 31 or 32.

So what about the rest of the Mariners' pitching staff?

James Paxton is, perhaps, the best, relatively-unknown pitcher in all of baseball. We let you know prior to last season that he may end up being the best $1 player in an auction draft, and one of the best sleeper picks among pitchers, period. Turns out, Paxton spent a lot of time injured last season, but when he pitched, he was more than solid. In 13 starts, Paxton carried a 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 - all super-solid numbers. He's only 26 this season, so we're fairly confident the injury big will stay away from him.

Taijuan Walker is someone who will get drafted in your fantasy league a little too early because he has a cool name, electric stuff and a good flair about him on the mound. He's only 22 years old and he's ready for the big time. Last season, he only made five starts, but he posted a 2.61 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. While we would expect his ERA to go up a bit given his WHIP, we also wouldn't be totally shocked if his WHIP comes down to match his ERA, instead. We expect Walker to end up around a 3.60 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. In those stats will be a few flashes of absolute brilliance when he's on, and those flashes could also be hot streaks that last 4 or 5 games, too.

Roenis Elias is also pretty solid in the rotation, although he can be a bit sloppy at times. His ERA was under 4.00, but his WHIP was over 1.3, which is usually an indicator that his ERA should be significantly higher. Nonetheless, he, too, is only 26 years old, so the upside to his talents far outweighs the downside.

Then there's the old guy of the bunch: Hisashi Iwakuma - he of the aged 34 years in April. Make no mistake, though - Iwakuma is solid, having posted a 3.52 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05 that indicates that he could very easily drop his ERA under 3.00 if a little luck comes his way. His K/9 are also excellent at 7.7. Another fantasy note: this guy will go way later than he should in your draft because he (along with everyone else in Seattle other than King Felix) gets no media attention.

The Mariners' Bullpen is above average. In fact, the biggest issue we see with it is Fernando Rodney. Sure, Fernando Rodney led all of baseball with 48 saves in 2014, but seriously... look at his stats - they weren't that good. Rodney finished with a good 2.85 ERA, but his WHIP was bloated at 1.34. That giant WHIP is a clear indication that he's in trouble. It's also on par with his career WHIP (1.36), whereas his career ERA is a non-impressive 3.61 in terms of being a closer. For fantasy purposes, there's no way we can recommend you draft Fernando Rodney unless you're desperate. Likewise, we see him as, quite possibly, the biggest question mark for the Mariners going into the 2015 season. On top of his bloated WHIP, his age is also pretty bloated - relatively speaking to the rest of the team, of course. Fernando Rodney will be 38 this season, so we don't expect much more from him.

If Fernando Rodney melts down as the Mariners' closer in 2015 - which we kind of expect - Danny Farquhar could get another shot at closing out games. Farquhar keeps improving, posting a 2.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. His ERA and WHIP are both better than Rodney's, and his K/9 are the same. Farquhar is also 28 this season - 10 years younger than Rodney.

In closing, the AL West needs to be on high alert of the Seattle Mariners. They're young, talented, ready to break out, and ready to have a contagious, winning dugout all season long.

Oh, did we even bother mentioning they have the best offensive second baseman in all of baseball in Robinson Cano? Yeah... that helps, too.

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Projections for the Dodgers' Outfield in 2015

1/10/2015

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Matt Kemp is gone, Andre Ethier might go to the Orioles (although those talked have kind of faded), Carl Crawford is always hurt, Yasiel Puig is crazy-talented but super-dopey, Scott Van Slyke is an all-or-nothing bat who should really be a DH in the AL somewhere, and Joc Pederson, who tore up Spring Training in 2013, absolutely stunk up the joint when he was a late-season call-up last year.

For this blog post, let's just say that the Orioles aren't dumb enough to take on Ethier's contract - we'll assume, for now, that Ethier will be a Dodger in 2014.

The reason we want to be clear on Ethier is because, while we like Carl Crawford, it's no secret that he's a mess, physically, these days, which sucks. When Crawford was healthy, he was a game-changing player. Now, though, we have to settle for flashes of brilliance in between pulled hammies.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' outfield is full of question marks and if-then-else statements.

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 1

LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Joc Pederson
RF: Yasiel Puig

The first option is one that Dodger fans are (mostly) hopeful for. First, Dodger fans are hopeful that Carl Crawford can, somehow, find a way to play 145+ games and play like his old (errrr - his young) self again. Second, they're hopeful that Joc Pederson ends up being the power-hitting, center0field-roaming stud that they saw in spring training in 2013. Third, they just want Yasiel Puig to play, period, which he will.

Ultimately, the Dodgers are expecting Puig to play right field - the best place for his cannon arm; Pederson would play center field - he has the speed, the smarts and enough of an arm to do it; and Crawford would play left field - the only place he can justifiably play these days.

This best-case scenario requires two relatively-unlikely things: Crawford to stay healthy and Joc Pederson to be a stud on opening day. While this is the plan for 2014, we don't see it lasting.

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 2

LF: Andre Ethier
CF: Joc Pederson
RF: Yasiel Puig

Andre Ethier takes over for Carl Crawford in left field only if he has to, but we think it's just as likely that Crawford gets hurt in spring training as he does any other time throughout the season. Scott Van Slyke will also get playing time in left field if/when Crawford gets hurt, but Van Slyke's strikeouts are gonna get really old on an everyday basis if you expect him to be a starter.

Again, this also assumes that Joc Pederson is suddenly able to play in the major leagues this season, and that's a significant question mark, still. Pederson hit .143 with 11 strikeouts in 28 at bats. He only scored one run, although he did manage to walk 9 times, but that's about the only positive we can draw from his big-league performance.

The Dodgers are counting on Joc Pederson to be ready to play with the big boys this season. Only time will tell.

In AAA last year, before being called up, Joc Pederson was a 30-30 guy in just 122 games (33 HR; 30 SB). The clear weakness he had in the Minors, though, was that he struck out a ridiculous 149 times in that same span (1.22 strikeouts per game, or 1 strikeout for every 2.99 at bats). He still hit .303, though, so the jury is still out on whether he can play in the big leagues or not. If he makes contact, he does serious damage... if he makes contact. But tell that to last year's AL MVP, Mike Trout, who struck out 184 times (1 strikeout for every 3.29 at bats).

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 3

Let's say that Joc Pederson sucks ass again this season, and let's also say that Carl Crawford has a season-ending injury in spring training (man... I hope that doesn't happen, now that I said it). Now what does the Dodger outfield look like?

LF: Scott Van Slyke
CF: Yasiel Puig
RF: Andre Ethier

With Pederson and Crawford out of the mix, the good news is that it makes the Dodgers' outfield problem a lot easier to figure out by process of elimination.

Yasiel Puig is the only certainty in the Dodgers' outfield in 2014. He'll play, but depending on everyone else, he may play center instead of right.

Van Slyke would have to play (and he would have to play left field), and Ethier would have to play. Honestly, Ethier could probably still play center field if necessary, which would mean leaving Puig's arm in right field where you want it. But having Puig in Center Field may become a necessity if Ethier can't track down balls the way a center fielder needs to be able to do.

If Puig ends up playing center field, the Dodgers have two problems:

1. Wasting Puig's arm in center field.
2. Expecting Puig to use his baseball smarts to call the shots in center field.

A great arm is still very useful in center field, especially since a base hit through the middle with a runner on second base is a pretty common play to make. But a great arm in center is a luxury more than it is a necessity. Ultimately, the top-priority in center field is having a guy with the speed t track down fly balls. Puig has that; Ethier doesn't.

Also, Expecting Puig to run the show in center field is a scary proposition. If Puig plays center field, you can expect to see him calling guys off of fly balls and then not being able to make the play himself.

Andre Ethier has the smarts and experience to run the show in center field, although his lack of range may prove to be too troublesome for the Dodgers' outfield. The Dodgers really want Puig's arm in right, but they may have to sacrifice his arm for his range.

Other Outfield Options for the Dodgers in 2014

Really, the three options listed above are just about the only options for the Dodgers in 2014, barring anomalies and other injuries. The Dodgers should just relax and be thankful that they have four potentially serviceable outfielders, even after the departure of Matt Kemp to San Diego. With Puig, Ethier, Crawford and Van Slyke, they should be okay. Not great, but okay. What they really to focus on now is what to do with Juan Uribe at third base, and what to do when they realize that Howie Kendrick is half the player that Dee Gordon is... but that's a different discussion.

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Curt Schilling, the Republican, Said Lots of Things

1/8/2015

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People hear what they wanna hear, and people blow things out of proportion when they wanna make news... whether it's newsworthy or not.

On Tuesday, January 7, 2015, Curt Schilling got into it a bit with the Twitter-verse after making a comment on WEEI, a Boston AM radio station. Before we get to the comment that Schilling haters (and, objectively speaking, probably a lot of Republican haters) decided to focus on, here's the first thing that Curt Schilling said on the Dennis and Callahan Morning Show:

Host: "The Hall of Fame voting process - the Hall of Fame voters themselves - take a lot of grief for a flawed process and a flawed vote. Generally speaking, from where you sit, Curt, did they get it right yesterday?"

Curt Schilling in his Red Sox days, pitching in front of the Republicans' favorite colors, red white and blue.

Curt Schilling: "Yeah, oh absolutely. Um... Yeah, they - the process isn't flawed - stupid people do stupid things... I've seen so many in the past... people making - voters making their vote into a news article, protesting this, protesting that - except just voting the player on his playing merits. And, you know, that's normal, I guess. We're human and, you know, we all have bias, we all have prejudice, and, you know... when Pedro (Martinez) gets 91-percent of the vote, that tells you something's wrong."

I want you to realize something here: Curt Schilling is on the Hall of Fame ballot, too, but he didn't get voted in. Despite that, he said that the voters "absolutely" got it right this year. Curt Schilling was not elected into the Hall of Fame, yet he said that the voters got it absolutely right. Furthermore, he even lamented that Pedro Martinez didn't get enough votes with 91% - and Pedro and Curt were not all that chummy in Boston together.

Did Being a Republican Cost Curt Schilling Votes? Stop it...

Look, people, quit making news out of horseshit that isn't news. You're the same people that focus your attention on a missing girl in Aruba as being national news. You're the same people who focus on a house-fire in Chicago and make it national news. You're the same ones who focus on a cold spell in the middle of winter in Iowa being national news... as if it's newsworthy at all that it's freaking cold in the middle of winter in Iowa, for God's sake..

"Oh my God! Did you hear it's cold in Iowa right now?!... In fucking January??!!!"
"NO WAY!!! Quick!! We've got our news lead!! Top of the hour!! GO GO GO!!"

Go back and listen to the interview. Schilling was clearly joking about Smoltz being a Democrat, then Schilling played on the joke (along with the hosts) that he's a Republican and, therefore, he lost some votes. Curt Schilling, as you can clearly hear throughout the rest of the interview, is completely fine with not getting into the Hall of Fame. Listen to the entire interview and remain objective. It's really not hard to understand. It's also pretty entertaining for true baseball fans, I must say... but you gotta get past your inherent hatred for Curt Schilling and/or Republicans.

Also remember something even more important: I'm not asking you to like Curt Schilling; I'm just asking you to listen to what he says, objectively.

The Worst Part of this Whole "Situation"

The fact that, out of all the things that Curt Schilling said in his interview with the Dennis and Callahan Morning Show, the fact that this one comment about him being a Republican is going to be the focus, speaks volumes of the attackers on Twitter today. Because of this, there will be memes, there will be endless punch-lines, there will be caricature drawings of Curt Schilling crying about the Hall of Fame every year while wearing an elephant lapel pin... I'll bet someone even throws in an, "If Sarah Palin was allowed to vote for Curt Schilling, he'd make it in the Hall of Fame" joke. Wait a minute - that's actually a pretty good one. I'll keep the Palin joke for myself. "DIBS!"

Anyway, the fact that this one comment is going to overshadow all the great insight throughout the interview is a damned shame. Curt Schilling shared, among other things:

Thoughts on DHs making it into the Hall of Fame
Who did Curt Schilling fear the most at the plate, and why and when
Was Randy Johnson a miserable person on an doff the field...

All this is good stuff. Great stuff, even, if you're the host of a sports talk radio show. Unfortunately, though, Curt Schilling is now going to have to face this bullshit (non-)issue every year when the Hall of Fame balloting comes around, and it's going to take time away from the real issues at hand, like his stats and actual merit on the field for (potentially) earning his spot in the Hall of Fame.

FINAL NOTE
The fact that certain people are choosing to blast Curt Schilling for the "Republican" remark proves exactly what he said in the interview when he addressed not getting votes.They simply don't like him for being as opinionated as he is:

"I do know that there are guys who probably will never vote for me because of the things that I said or did... y'know... that's the way it works."

Just like in the Twitter-verse, there are people in the media who simply don't like Curt Schilling. I mean, radio hosts seem to love the fact that he's opinionated, of course, but some guys in the media dislike him for that exact same reason. Go figure.

Again, no one's asking you to like Curt Schilling - you don't have to like him or the Republicans to understand this. By choosing this one, off-handed joking remark and focus all of your attention on it, yet totally ignore all of the other interesting insights that Schilling gave during the interview, it just shows that you are incapable of shaking your own bias. You are incapable of being tolerant of this guy because he's a Republican. Again, you don't have to like Republicans, nor do you have to like Curt Schilling, but can you just focus on the actual news, here? Curt Schilling said in this very same interview that Randy Johnson was a "miserable, miserable guy." Shouldn't that get some attention? He also said that Todd Helton was one of his least-favorite guys to face. He also said that he has no problem with Craig Biggio being a "compiler" (a guy who gets a bunch of hits because he plays forever). He also said that the media simply doesn't like certain guys... oh wait... we've been over that.

The point is: be honest. This is actually a really insightful interview if you can just get over your immediate, knee-jerk reaction to hating all things Republican or anything that comes out of Schilling's mouth. And if you're a true baseball fan, you can listen to everything that Curt Schilling has to say in this interview and come away saying, "Wow... that was some pretty good stuff" because, objectively speaking, it really was.

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Fantasy
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Justin Moreau

Former ESPN employee; Fantasy baseball nerd since 1992; perhaps the only objective and unbiased voice of reason in the world of sports analysis and entertainment.

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Fantasy Worth of Michael Brantley in 2015

Fantasy Statistical Indicators for Brantley

Michael Brantley's Fantasy Stats

Why Michael Brantley Had a Great Season

Expectations in 2015

Beware the Seattle Mariners in 2015

Seattle's Dominant Starting Pitching

Projections for the Dodgers' Outfield in 2015

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 1

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 2

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 3

Other Outfield Options for the Dodgers in 2014

Curt Schilling, the Republican, Said Lots of Things

Did Being a Republican Cost Curt Schilling Votes? Stop it...

The Worst Part of this Whole "Situation"

Fantasy
Baseball
Brass
Blog

Justin Moreau

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Categories

Fantasy Worth of Michael Brantley in 2015

Fantasy Statistical Indicators for Brantley

Michael Brantley's Fantasy Stats

Why Michael Brantley Had a Great Season

Expectations in 2015

Beware the Seattle Mariners in 2015

Seattle's Dominant Starting Pitching

Projections for the Dodgers' Outfield in 2015

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 1

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 2

Dodgers Outfield, 2014: Scenario 3

Other Outfield Options for the Dodgers in 2014

Curt Schilling, the Republican, Said Lots of Things

Did Being a Republican Cost Curt Schilling Votes? Stop it...

The Worst Part of this Whole "Situation"

Fantasy Baseball Brass Blog

Justin Moreau

Archives

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