Curtis Granderson Out with Broken Wrist: How Does That Affect Fantasy Baseball Draft Day?

2/24/2013

Curtis Granderson: Out 10 Weeks (wrist fracture).

February 24, 2013 (Tampa, FL) - New York Yankees' Center Fielder, Curtis Granderson, will miss the next 10 weeks with a fractured wrist after being hit by a pitch from Toronto Blue Jays' Pitcher, JA Happ. At first, Granderson didn't think it was fractures, but he was taken in for precautionary x-rays which revealed the fracture "clear as day," according to Granderson himself upon seeing the x-ray first hand.While this has an obvious affect on the Yankees' season, we'll need to analyze what Granderson's injury means to fantasy baseball owners.

For anyone who has Granderson in a keeper league, you're in deep you-know-what as Granderson's stats are extremely difficult to replace on a fantasy roster, to put it mildly.

Typically, Curtis Granderson is not only valuable because of his power, but because he's in the middle of the Yankees' lineup, which a perennial powerhouse year after year. With the aging and banged-up Yankees' lineup, however, this is just another inopportune moment for them, and it seems like it's been a non-stop barrage of bad news for the Yankees since Derek Jeter broke his ankle on a freak play in the playoffs last season.

In regard to how this affects you and your fantasy draft, the obvious affect is that Granderson's draft value just dropped significantly. Granderson goes from being drafted in the first 3-5 rounds to being drafted in the 7th-15th rounds. In an auction draft, his value just dropped from $35-$45 down the the $20-ish range.

The other affect Granderson's wrist injury has on your fantasy draft is that it provides you with 2 sleeper picks: Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz. Both Rivera (who came over from the Dodgers) and Diaz (from the Braves) are guys who have always had good potential, but have not been able to put it all together to make it as an every-day player. Flashes of brilliance form Rivera and Diaz haven't been enough to give them starting jobs for any significant amount of time. But dropping one of them in the middle of the New York Yankees' lineup could be the boost one of them needs. Depending on who protects them in the lineup, one of them could have a good year, or could at least capitalize on Granderson being out long enough for you to survive in your fantasy league - a boost you'll definitely need in a merciless rotisserie league...

And to expound on that a bit: those of you who have Granderson in a keeper rotisserie league, you may have just seen your season get flushed down the toilet. Frankly, we don't think Diaz or Rivera will do anything to help you.

We want you to draft Travis Hafner or Kevin Youkilis if you absolutely must have a Yankee to replace a Yankee. Those are your better bets if you need to replace Granderson's power on your fantasy team. Hafner looked like he was on his way back to his old self last season... okay, about 75% back to his old self, but then his old injured self showed up and ended his season early yet again. Dropping Hafner in the middle of the Yankees' lineup ay be exactly what he needs. Plus, hitting in New York is almost like hitting in a Little League park these days, so Hafner has a good chance to stay healthy as a strict, no glove wearin' DH for the Yankees.

Kevin Youkilis, however, isn't quite as injury prone as Hafner, and he definitely has something to prove after the Red Sox shipped him off to Chicago last season. This year, the Yankees have signed Youkilis to cover for Alex Rodriguez while he recovers from hip surgery, and the rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox is definitely the fuel Youkilis needs to come out of the gates on fire.

Of course, we need to mention that Brett Gardner will move over to replace Granderson in Center Field (barring any unforeseen mishaps or injuries), but Gardner isn't exactly going to help replace Granderson's power production. However, you can read our article on how to win a 5x5 head-to-head fantasy league. It will show you how you can use a guy like Brett Gardner to win your league regardless of when (or even if) Curtis Granderson comes back.

Of course, we all want to see Curtis Granderson come back and play because he's a joy to watch. But take heed of the notes above and adjust your fantasy draft strategy accordingly. And as for you, Curtis, we'll see you in May, amigo.

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Michael Bourn Signs with Indians; How Does that Affect Bourn's Fantasy Baseball Worth?

2/13/2013

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Trust us: that's Michael Bourn!

Michael Bourn has signed with the Cleveland Indians for 4 years, $48-million. That's great news for Michael Bourn, and that's also, well, news for fantasy baseball owners. Michael Bourn came up with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006, then went to the Houston Astros in 2008 at the young age of 25. In 2011, the Astros traded him to the Atlanta Braves, and after the 2012 season, Bourn was a free agent. While it took a while for him to find a new home, he has finally landed a job with the Cleveland Indians.Michael Bourn is just one of many off-season signings by the Cleveland Indians, which shows the Indians are dead serious about winning in 2013.

That's all fine and dandy, but what do we care about the Indians?! We wanna know how this affects our impending fantasy baseball draft.

Michael Bourn is a good fit in Cleveland for Fantasy Owners

While the signing of Michael Bourn is bad news for Grady Sizemore (who is still an unsigned free agent), it is good news for Michael Bourn and anyone who drafts. Here at Fantasy Baseball Brass, we contend that Michael Bourn is a solid fantasy performer. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but who doesn't these days? Bourn is money when he's on the bases, he still hits in the .275 range, and he steals bases like a mad man. In Atlanta, he had Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward to drive him in - both of whom are streaky and 23 years old. In Cleveland, he'll have Nick Swisher, Mark reynolds, Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana to drive him in, plus he'll be able to DH once in a while if he needs to rest a sore hamstring (or some other DL-bait ailment that base stealers tend to deal with).

Based on this signing, we don't see a huge improvement in Michael Bourn's fantasy stats, but we do see Bourn having a slightly-better fantasy season in 2013. He'll still strike out plenty, but most fantasy owners don't care about that. Don't be surprised if Michael Bourn racks up 100+ Runs this season with 10 HR and 40 stolen bases in Cleveland. There are no guarantees in fantasy baseball, but we're confident he'll be at least as good as last season, if not better.

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After All That, Adam LaRoche Re-Signs with the Nationals. What Does that Mean for Fantasy Baseball Owners?

1/8/2013

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January 8, 2013 - Adam LaRoche has signed a 2-year deal with the Washington Nationals, the same team that employed him last year and definitely reaped the benefits of his solid performance. LaRoche set a career high with 33 Home Runs and tied his career-high with 100 RBI while helping the Nationals get to the NL Playoffs. Just because Adam LaRoche signed with the same team he played for last season, does that mean that he'll automatically have another good season in 2013, too? Normally, we'd say no - that alone doesn't guarantee another solid season - but in LaRoche's case, we say yes... with one big caveat... emphasis on the word "big." More on that later

First off, here's why we think Adam LaRoche is very likely to have another good season in Washington. For one thing, even though he's seen as kind of a 2nd-tier player, Adam LaRoche has been very consistent throughout his career. You can count on him to hit 25-30 HR (maybe even 35-40 HR this season - more on that later) and drive in 85-100 RBI year in and year out.

Another factor for LaRoche is that having the Washington Nationals re-sign him will give him a boost of confidence, feeling as though, finally, someone appreciates that he can be counted on to perform at the major league level. LaRoche started his career with the Atlanta Braves at 24 years old and hit 65 home runs in his first three seasons, including the classic breakout year at the age of 26 with 32 home runs. Naturally, the Atlanta Braves immediately traded him, cashing him in at what they saw was his peak price. Even worse than being traded, they traded him to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates where baseball talent goes to die. This type of transaction can weigh on a player's mind: "Did they trade me because they think I can never do that again? Are they right? Do they know me better than I know myself?" Of course, we can't say for sure whether Adam LaRoche, himself, thought any of those things, but coaches, pundits and fantasy owners all wondered if he was the real deal, as they should with a young guy experiencing success for the first time at the Major League level.

In Pittsburgh, LaRoche's performance was consistent: 21 HR, 88 RBI in 2007; 25 HR, 85 RBI in 2008. In 2009, in a free agency year, he was again traded, this time to the Boston Red Sox (for 6 games), then back to the Atlanta Braves where he hit 12 HR in his last 57 games in Atlanta. In 2010, LaRoche signed on as a free agent with the Arizona Diamondbacks for about $2.5-million less than what he made in the previous season. Naturally, with Arizona, he promptly hit his usual 25 HR, but he also drove in a career-high 100 RBI. The following season, LaRoche landed in Washington DC to play with the young and talented Nationals and hit just 3 HR while missing over 70% of the season.

Finally, let's bring us to last season where Adam LaRoche emerged as not only a legitimate power threat, he also became a respected power threat. Not only did LaRoche hit 33 home runs, he also hit a lot of clutch home runs when his team needed them the most. Suddenly, when Washington (and LaRoche) had the spotlight shine on them, people started calling LaRoche a "sweet-swinging lefty" and a "clutch hitter." The Washington Nationals recognized all this, so they ponied up and re-signed LaRoche for the next two seasons.

And now for the big caveat: his name is Mike Morse. When you look around the horn in Washington DC, there's no room for Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche. Either that, or there's no room for Morse and Jayson Werth... or there's no room for Morse an Bryce Harper . And dig this: Mike Morse has even played 57 games at Shortstop over his career, so you could play him there... except that Ian Desmond plays there, and he's a super-stud. Maybe if you more Michael Morse to third base?... There's Ryan Zimmerman who may be emerging as the best offensive third basemen in the game. On top of all that, the Nationals also signed Denard Span to cover center field and hit leadoff, so Morse isn't going to fit in there, either. So what does all this mean for Adam LaRoche, let alone Michael Morse?

Does the term "trade bait" mean anything to you? The bad news for LaRoche and Morse is that the Nationals can trade either one of them for even more pitching arms, or even a super-stud catcher (no offense, Kurt Suzuki ). Both of these guys are too good to be platoon players, and they're both too good to bench. The truth is that Adam LaRoche is a more-patient hitter than Morse, so he's the better bet for the Nationals. However, despite Michael Morse's atrocious walk-to-strikeout ratio (16 walks to 97 Ks in just 102 games last year), he is a ridiculous power threat, and he's three years younger.

The real factor as to which one is more-likely to be traded, is the recent contract given to LaRoche. LaRoche got a 2-year deal while Michael Morse is in the last year of his, meaning he's eligible for free agency at the end of this season. This means that, for one thing, Morse will want to play as much as possible this year so he can cash in a huge contract for the 2014 season. If LaRoche is hogging playing time in front of him, he'll very likely want to be traded, and the Nationals will be happy to do so, especially since they're a contender for the playoffs and the World Series. The only hope would be to bench the recently-struggling Jayson Werth in favor of Morse, but then the Nationals will be stuck with Werth who's signed for a hefty contract through the 2017 season. In other words, their only option for a trade is to trade Morse, unless Jayson Werth suddenly hits .325 with 40 HR and 120 RBI (which isn't going to happen).

Look for the Nationals to deal Michael Morse since he's a free agent at the end of this season, and look for the Nationals to really cash him in for some quality talent that can help get them over the hump and possibly into the World Series in 2013... and, since we started this post with Adam LaRoche, look for LaRoche to pitch in with his usual 30 HR, 90 RBI and .270 batting average. LaRoche is money well spent in DC.

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MLB Free Agent Updates: Which Free Agent Signings Are the Best for Your Fantasy Baseball Team?

12/20/2012

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BJ Upton joins a power-stacked lineup in Atlanta.

The Free Agent signings in the major leagues keep piling up day after day. While you can tell how these guys are going to help (or not help) the teams they're joining, it's not always so easy to see how the free agent signings will affect the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season. Here at Fantasy Baseball Brass, we're going to help you determine which free agents will help your fantasy team the most in 2013.

BJ Upton - Atlanta Braves: BJ Upton has officially replaced Michael Bourn in center field for the Atlanta Braves. Looking up and down the Braves' lineup, there's no shortage of power. There's some shortage of contact hitters - and BJ Upton strikes out his fair share, too - but there are a bunch of power hitters in Atlanta, so scoring runs shouldn't be a problem. The only problem facing Braves' Manager, Fredi Gonzalez, is where to shuffle everyone in the lineup. Chipper Jones has finally retired; Michael Bourn is no longer there to hit leadoff; and there are a bunch of hitters who will be good enough to be a #3 or #4 hitter some day, but are they good enough now?

Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman are two of the best, young players in all of baseball right now, and they're both just 22 years old. These are also the guys that Fredi Gonzalez is likely to turn to hit in the #3 through #5 spots (Maybe with Brian McCann in between them at the cleanup spot). But if one of those guys slumps, that could throw off any lineup consistency for Gonzalez. Dan Uggla could also see time in the cleanup spot if one of the other guys slumps, goes on the DL or just plain doesn't pan out. But the truth is that the jury is still out on McCann and Uggla, and the jury is always out on a 23-year-old player in terms of consistency and reliability. Aside from all this, though, BJ Upton will still be a leadoff guy, despite his statistics. Last season, Upton hit just .248, but he hit 28 HR, drove in 78 RBI and stole 31 bases. Not exactly your prototype leadoff hitter. The worst part is that his On-Base percentage was just .298, and that's definitely not what you want out of a leadoff hitter (by comparison, Michael Bourn hit .274 with an OBP of .348). All in all, we see Upton scoring 90-100 runs this year since there will be tons of protection behind him, but he's likely to frustrate Braves fans just as much - if not more so - than Michael Bourn did. The fact of the matter may be that he's a worse leadoff guy than Bourn, but a better (and healthier) cleanup hitter than anyone else on the roster. He needs protection in the lineup directly behind him to make sure he sees a steady diet of fastballs to crush, and with Freeman, Heyward or McCann protecting him, he could really blossom in a cleanup role... but we don't see that happening. Until that lineup gets shifted around, expect BJ Upton to put up the same stats as last season and be happy with anything beyond that.

Ryan Dempster - Boston Red Sox: We're not buying the hype on Ryan Dempster. Dempster was last year's coveted trade-deadline prize pitcher, but we just can't convince ourselves that he's all that great. Historically, his statistics are average at best, and he spent the peak of his career (age 28-30) as a run-of-the-mill Closer for the Cubs. His career ERA is 4.33, and at the age of 35 with 15 seasons under his belt, that's a pretty accurate sampling of one's pitching career.

Last season, Dempster was having his best season ever, posting a 2.25 ERA for the Cubs until he got traded to the Texas Rangers. While pitching for the Rangers down the stretch, his ERA ballooned to a disgusting 5.09 in 12 starts. The good news is that he went 7-3 in those starts, but it certainly wasn't because he pitched well. Here's some more bad news: his career WHIP is 1.43, and his WHIP with the Rangers last season was 1.44. So which was the real Ryan Dempster last season: the one with the 2.25 ERA and the 1.04 WHIP, or the one with the 5.09 ERA and the 1.44 WHIP? We think it'll be closer to the latter, although we think his ERA will stay just below 4.00, and his WHIP will stay around 1.25-ish. Remember, out of his 547 career pitching appearances (322 as a starter), Dempster is back in the American League, in another hitter-friendly park in Boston, and with only 12 American League starts under his belt. We're afraid to look at his stats in the early part of the 2013 season, so we recommend that, if you draft him, draft him in the middle rounds (although some hype-buying idiot in your league will probably pick him way too early) and plan on benching him for the first few weeks until you see how he handles the AL hitters and vice-versa... and if he happens to pitch well to start the season, trade him to some sucker in your league while he's hot.

Stay Tuned for more from the Fantasy Baseball Brass Blog as more free agents sign this off-season...

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How Josh Hamilton will Help or Hurt your Fantasy Team After Signing with the Los Angeles Angels

12/15/2012

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The good news for Josh Hamilton is that his tat sleeve will help him fit in perfectly in Los Angeles. The bad news for Josh Hamilton is that, for a man with a history of addiction... let's just say that LA isn't exactly devoid of enablers. But let's move on to how Josh Hamilton signing with the Los Angeles Angels will affect your fantasy baseball team in 2013.

Scenario #1 (in no particular order): Mike Scioscia bats Pujols in the cleanup spot to protect Hamilton in the #3 spot. Much like when the San Francisco Giants signed Barry Bonds and made him hit 4th in the lineup to protect the #3 hitter in the lineup, Mike Scioscia may very well drop Albert Pujols to the #4 spot in order to protect Josh Hamilton in his new surroundings. If Scioscia does this and decides to stick with it, you can expect Josh Hamilton to absolutely dominate fantasy baseball this year.

Scanario #2: Scioscia bats Hamilton in the Cleanup spot to protect Albert Pujols. Honestly, we think Josh Hamilton can handle the pressure right out of the gates. Unlike Albert Pujols last year, Hamilton isn't making the switch from the NL to the AL. Hell, Hamilton isn't even changing divisions. Nonetheless, once Hamilton goes into one of his typical, streaky slumps where he swings at everything within radar range but forgets to make contact, he's bound to hear a solid collection of boo birds in Anaheim. Couple that with his emotional nature and he may become a (temporary) head case. If this happens, expect an average year out of Josh Hamilton, which is still a tremendous year by most fantasy baseball standards.

Scenario #3: Scioscia bats Hamilton in the 5 spot to protect Mark Trumbo or Kendrys Morales. This will likely play out a lot like the above scenario. The only question will be whether Hamilton will feel more pressure or less pressure than if he was assigned to protect Pujols. He may feel more pressure in that he'll feel like he has to do more to help Morales or Trumbo since Pujols really needs very little help. On the other hand, if he's assigned to protect Morales or Trumbo, he may feel less pressure since, after all, it's not like he's having to protect the game's best hitter in Albert Pujols. This is a tough one because it can also significantly affect his RBI production. Protecting Kendrys Morales or Mark Trumbo means that he still has to rely on them getting on base in front of him, which is a double-edged sword: if they get on base, they're prone to hitting home runs which wipes the bases clean of RBI opportunities for Hamilton; if they don't get on base, well, that means the same thing - there won't be anyone to drive home.

What do we think will happen?

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Justin Moreau

Former ESPN employee; Fantasy baseball nerd since 1992; perhaps the only objective and unbiased voice of reason in the world of sports analysis and entertainment.

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Curtis Granderson Out with Broken Wrist: How Does That Affect Fantasy Baseball Draft Day?

Michael Bourn Signs with Indians; How Does that Affect Bourn's Fantasy Baseball Worth?

Michael Bourn is a good fit in Cleveland for Fantasy Owners

After All That, Adam LaRoche Re-Signs with the Nationals. What Does that Mean for Fantasy Baseball Owners?

MLB Free Agent Updates: Which Free Agent Signings Are the Best for Your Fantasy Baseball Team?

How Josh Hamilton will Help or Hurt your Fantasy Team After Signing with the Los Angeles Angels

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